The real reason why Mayawati showed Congress the ‘hand’

New Delhi, Oct 4: BSP supremo Mayawati has ruled out any alliance with the Congress for the assembly polls in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. While launching an attack against several Congress leaders including Digvijaya Singh, she however refrained from criticising Rahul and Sonia Gandhi.

While it is certain that the BSP would contest the polls alone in the states of Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh, the big question is will this play out in the 2019 elections as well. It would depend on how the seat sharing arrangement is made, considering Mayawati hails from the mighty state of Uttar Pradesh.

The bone of contention:

For the BSP, the big issue was the seat sharing. In Rajasthan the Congress had offered just nine seats, while there are 200. In Madhya Pradesh, where there are 231 seats, the BSP was offered just 15 and in the case of Chattisgarh, it was 5 out of 90.

Mayawati claimed that she had noticed in the past that each time the BSP entered into an alliance, the votes got transferred to the Congress. The BSP suffers more in an alliance, she said while adding that the Congress was looking to eliminate small parties in the name of defeating the BJP.

The BSP influence:

In the states of both MP and Rajasthan, the BSP has influence in certain pockets, especially where the Dalit population is higher. In the 2013 elections in MP, the party won 6.29 per cent of the votes, whereas in Rajasthan the number stood at 3.4 per cent.

Political analysts say that the Congress may lose out in Madhya Pradesh after the BSP decided to fight it alone. The BJP and Congress are locked in a tight fight in the state and it could be the BSP which may end up making the difference in certain pockets in this close contest.

The fact however is, while Mayawati's statements are significant, she is still not the major player in these states. She is testing the waters, Dr. Sandeep Shastri, leading psephologist tells OneIndia.

Analysts also feel that this could be a hard bargain tactic ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where she would expect many more seats from the Congress. Hence she was guarded in her response yesterday and had gone all out to praise Rahul and Sonia. This even prompted the Congress to point out the same and say that as long as there is mutual respect and confidence, all other issues can be worked out.

The impact on the grand alliance:

In 2014, the BSP did not win a single seat. While the number may have stood at a nought, the fact is that the party still does have a considerable vote share among the Dalits and this is a fact that no party would ignore.

Going by Mayawati's statement, it is clear that the party is capable of retaining its vote share, but it is unable to transfer votes for itself from other parties. The performance of the BSP and the vote share it is able to garner would be crucial considering the fact that these assembly polls are being dubbed as a semi-final to the big one in 2019. The battle at Chhattisgarh too would be closely watched as the BSP would fight the election in an alliance with Ajit Jogi.

However the drama is far from over as of now. Her careful wordplay where the Gandhis are concerned and the fact that she is yet to release the list of BSP candidates has left several things in the open. Is there is a chance of a reconciliation with the Congress? Time would tell.