The impact of Shettar quitting BJP and joining Congress

The big news of the day was BJP heavy-weight Jagadish Shettar joining the Congress.

Those who have followed Karnataka politics closely would have never imagined Shettar, a loyalist, a grass-root level worker joining the Congress. The question now is what is the impact such a move would have considering that Shettar has won several elections and he hails from the powerful Lingayat community.

The question now is how much of this move would have an impact on the BJP, which is looking to get back to power in Karnataka. Shettar has been seen someone as who has never rebelled against the party. He has all through his association with the BJP toed the line and accepted what has been told to him by the party.

It is important to recognise what Shettar stands for, says Dr. Sandeep Shastri a leading psephologist tells OneIndia.

"For me the lesson here is people management. What will the impact is a different question. When Shettar says that his exit would have an impact on 25 seats, it is a huge overreach according me. It is important to understand what does this development indicate, " Dr Shastri says.

If one looks at the developments centring Shettar, one should also understand that the central leadership has ultimately prevailed. Look at the statements by B S Yediyurappa and Prahlad Joshi, both of whom had said that Shettar would get a ticket, 99 per cent. Despite these statements, it became clear that the central leadership will not climb down on this.

"In a sense if one were to look at it, then both what Yediyurappa and Joshi said have been negated. I however wonder if the same model would work here. In Gujarat replacing old leaders worked, but giving the uniqueness of Karnataka, it needs to be seen if this will work," Dr Shastri added.

The Congress:

Following the entry of Shettar, two top leaders of the Congress, D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah made certain statements. Shivakumar said that there will be no demands from Shettar. Siddaramaiah on the other hand said that for the BJP, Yediyurappa will always remain the top Lingayat leader while Shettar would be second.

Shettar has been a chief minister and does this raise the question that he has queered the pitch in someways in the Congress?

"The Congress has made the best use of the situation and is trying to expand its Lingayat base in North Karnataka. Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah may have their own take on the issue. However, how I see it is that Shettar would remain content with an MLA seat and would not be aspiring for more," Dr. Shastri added.

Shettar's offers:

Prior to him joining the BJP, many in the party had said that Shettar was offered a Rajya Sabha seat and also a Cabinet berth at the Centre. Were these claims just kite-flying or is there any truth in it.

Dr. Shastri feels that the leadership's approach was, 'fall in line.' "The message of the leadership has always been 'fall in line.' No rebel has been told to stay back," he also added.