The caste equation in Karnataka explained: Will JD(S) play kingmaker again?

Like any other state, caste plays a big factor in Karnataka also. The question is will the voting pattern in the state be the same this year as was seen in the 2018 elections

New Delhi, Jan 13: It is very often said and has been proven several times that in the Karnataka Assembly elections, it is caste that plays a major factor.

Experts tell OneIndia that the scenario would be no different this time around too. Like in 2018, the Janata Dal (S) would be looking to create a hung assembly so that it can play the kingmaker like it has done in the past several times. Looking at the current situation, there are many similarities between the 2018 and 2023 elections. All parties are into caste engineering and the BJP would bank on the Hindu and Lingayat votes and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The caste cauldron:

In 2015, then chief minister Siddaramaiah had conducted a caste census. Although the official results were not made public, several media outlets had reported about the caste equations in the state.

The Dalits account for 19.5 per cent of the population. These votes are generally split across all parties, although the Congress manages to bag a large chunk of these votes. The Muslims on the other hand account for 16 per cent of the population. These votes are usually split between the Congress and JD(S). However with the SDPI deciding to contest 100 seats it would be interesting to see if there would be a further split in the Muslim votes.

The Lingayats account for 14 per cent of the population and this community has been voting for the BJP for several years now. The 14 per cent Vokkaliga vote share is usually split between the Congress and JD(S). The BJP is trying to make inroads into this vote bank. BJP leader and Union Minister, Amit Shah sounded the party's poll bugle from the Old Mysuru Region which has the most number of Vokkaligas and while doing so, he said that if the BJP has to become the largest party in the state, it has to perform well in this region.

The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) make up for 20 per cent of Karnataka's population and of this 7 per cent Kurubas.

Region wise vote:

The communities that make the biggest difference in the state are the Vokkaligas and Lingayats. The two castes have accounted for 50 per cent of the MLAs and MPs and this is irrespective of any party in power.

In the previous elections, it was the JD(S) which upset the Congress cart by bagging 27 of the 61 seats in the Mysuru Karnataka Region. The BJP and Congress ended up with 11 and 17 respectively while the others bagged two.

In the Kitturu Karnataka region, the BJP won 30 of the 50 seats while the Congress bagged 17, JD(S), two and others one. In Kalyana Karnataka of the 40 seats, the BJP ended up with 15, Congress, 21 and JD(S), 4.

The BJP fell short of the majority in the previous elections largely because of the Greater Bengaluru Region. The BJP which usually performs well in this region managed to bag just 11 of the 32 seats. The Congress bagged, 17 and the JD(S), 4. Madhya Karnataka has 26 seats and the BJP won in 21, while the Congress ended up with the remaining five. In Karavali Karnataka, the put up an impressive show by winning 16 of the 19 seats, while the Congress won 3.