Signs of a third wave? Not just Kerala, 13 other states seeing spike in daily covid cases

New Delhi, Aug 03: Amid fears of possible third wave, not just Kerala, bordering states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu too have reported a spike in the number of Covid-19 cases.

Along with Kerala, which has turned into covid hotbed, 13 other states recorded an increase in cases last week.

The NorthEastern sates have witnessed the maximum rise in fresh cases between(July 26-August 1). While Himachal Pradesh registered a surge of 64%, Uttarakhand saw a 61% increase in infections. Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a spike of 26%.

National capital, Delhi, though cases have dropped significantly, saw 15% rise in infections. Haryana too winessed 2% spike in covid cases.

Though the numbers are negligeable, what is significant is that slowly the cases of coronavirus cases increasing in the country.

Rising R-value

The R-factor, which indicates the speed at which COVID-19 infection is spreading in the country, is climbing steadily fuelling worries about the pandemic rearing its head again.

An 'R' value of 1 means , every infected person to at least one more person. If the R-value is lesser than one, it means the number of newly infected people is lower than the number of infected people in the preceding period which means the disease incidence is going down.

During second covid wave peak, India's the overall R-value atood at 1.37 between March 9 to April 21. Later reduced to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7.

Notably, India's 'R' value neared 1 on July 27 for the first time after May 7 when the second wave of pandemic was said to be waning. The estimated R value over the July 27-31 period is 1.03."

The R-factor is worrysome in states like Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura, as it remains higher than 1. Besides, states like Kerala, Karnataka, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have also seen steady rise.

"Whenever R number is above one, it means that the case trajectory is increasing & it needs to be controlled," said Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health Ministry.

US, Canada, Australia and India have 1.2 R number, on average. This means one infected individual is infecting more than one person. R number is high in 8 states of India.

Is it the beginning of the third wave?

Government has maintained that the second wave of the pandemic which reached its peak in April and May is not yet over. States like Kerala, Maharashtra and some northeastern states have been reporting a sustained number of daily infections.

The government stated that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases in the country is now registering a sustained and considerable decline.

"As on 28th July 2021, the trajectory of cases in the country after showing a resurgence from mid-February 2021, peaked in May 2021, is now registering a sustained and considerable decline," the government said in a statement.

When is covid thid wave in India?

A study done by IIT researchers has predicted that the third wave of COVID-19 will likely hit India this month as the daily infections tally will go up to 100,000 in the best-case scenario or to 150,000 in the worst-case scenario.

The surge in COVID cases in August will push the third wave which may peak in the month of October," it said.

India is currently reporting COVID cases nearing 40,000 daily cases. Kerala, which was hailed globally for covid management is now under cticism as the southeren state is reporting nearly or over 20,000 infections in a day.