SC Verdict On Shiv Sena Today: The Possible Scenarios And Questions That Would Be Answered

All eyes are on the Supreme Court as its Constitution Bench would hand out an important ruling that would have a bearing on Maharashtra politics.

A five-judge Bench will deliver its judgment on a batch of petitions pertaining to last year's split in the Shiv Sena between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. The ruling would also focus on the decision taken by then Governor, Bhagath Singh Koshiyari to invite the Shinde faction to form the government along with the BJP after Uddhav Thackeray chose to resign as chief minister of Maharashtra.

The issues:

There are a host of issues that are up before the Supreme Court. The court is expected to take a decision on the validity of the then Governor's decision to tell Uddhav to take a floor-test. This had led to Thackeray resigning as CM and Shinde taking over as the CM.

The court would also deliver its verdict on the Governor which had gone on to invite Shinde to form the government. The crucial aspect would be how the Governor went on to invite the Shinde faction to form the government despite disqualification proceedings being pending before the then deputy speaker under the anti-defection law.

Even if the Supreme Court rules that the decisions by the Governor were unconstitutional, it would have give a ruling on the validity of the Shinde led government. It would also have to answer the question on what it had called during one of its hearings, a 'legal conundrum' surrounding the fate of Thackeray who had chosen to resign even before taking the floor test.

Recognition:

Another decision that the Supreme Court would have to take is pertaining to the Assembly Speaker's decision to recognise the Shinde-led faction to recognise it as the real Shiv Sena.

The Bench may also decide on whether the Shinde faction violated the anti-defection law by not merging it with any other party on the floor of the House. This would lead to the Bench deciding on the disqualification proceedings initiated by the then deputy speaker against the 16 MLAs from the Shinde faction.

Possible scenarios:

If the verdict is in favour of the Shinde faction, it would have a major impact and make Eknath Shinde a long-term player in national politics. The verdict would also help the Shiv Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra counter the sympathy factor that has been raised by the Uddhav faction. This would further boost the Shinde faction in the upcoming Mumbai municipal elections.

Political analysts say if the judgment is in favour of the Shinde faction it could also trigger another round of defections from the Uddhav camp. This would also mean that Shinde gets to continue as chief minister.

What if the verdict is against Shinde:

A verdict against Shinde would mean that Uddhav will be asked to prove his majority on the floor of the House. Ideally it would mean that the decision by the Governor would be overturned.

In case the court leaves the decision to the Speaker of the House, it would be seen as a victory to the Shinde faction, at least in terms of a perception battle. It would mean that the state government would survive till the end of its tenure next year.