Rajya Sabha Polls: Why it’s advantage BJP in Karnataka despite no numbers?

New Delhi, Jun 01: Rajya Sabha polls in Karnataka is set for a keen contest with all the three major political parties fielding candidates for the fourth seat for which none of them have the required numbers to get elected.

Despite not having adequate number of votes to win the fourth Rajya Sabha seat from the State Assembly, all the three political parties in the state - BJP, Congress and JD(S) - have fielded candidates for the seat, forcing an election.

The Rajya Sabha polls in Karnataka was ealier expected to be a smooth affair as all three parties were of the opinion to reach an informal agreement ensuring unanimous election of candidates for all four seats going to polls on June 10.

However, in an unexpected move, the Congress on Monday fielded its state general secretary Mansoor Ali Khan as a second candidate; following this, the ruling BJP also announced the candidature of outgoing MLC Lehar Singh Siroya as its third candidate for the polls.

With this, hopes of JD(S) candidate Kupendra Reddy winning the polls are fading.

JD(S)expresses disappointment

Expressing surprise over Congress fielding a second candidate "all of a sudden", senior JD(S) leader and former Minister H D Revanna requested the national party for support to keep the "communal forces" out of the race.

"Sonia Gandhi on Friday spoke to Deve Gowda (JDS patriarch), following her consent we have fielded our party candidate today. In the same way H D Kumaraswamy (JDS leader) has spoken to K C Venugopal (Congress General Secretary) stating that JD(S) may fall short of a few votes and requested for support, after they agreed we have fielded the candidate," Revanna said.

Speaking to reporters here, Gowda's elder son said Kupendra Reddy himself had met state Congress President D K Shivakumar, Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha M Mallikarjun Kharge, and other Congress leaders like R V Deshpande, B K Hariprasad and Ramalinga Reddy seeking support.

"He (Kupendra Reddy) also wanted to meet Siddaramaiah and had sought his appointment....but don't know what happened, in a sudden development they (Congress) have fielded second candidate, despite not having numbers to win the seat," he said, adding that Congress leaders had not expressed any intention to field second candidate.

The number game

A candidate needs 45 votes to win, and based on their strength in the Legislative Assembly, the BJP can win two seats and the Congress one, in the June 10 Rajya Sabha polls for four seats.

After electing two Rajya Sabha candidates (Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and actor-politician Jaggesh) based on its own strength in the Assembly, the BJP will be left with an additional 29 votes.

The Congress will be left with 24 extra votes after electing Jairam Ramesh, while the JD(S) has only 32 votes, which is not sufficient to win a seat.

Possible scenario

BJP

BJP-Congress alliance is a distant dream. So, the only chance left for the BJP is to get support from JD(S). If it does, it is a win-win situation for the saffron party. In case, JD(S) backtracks, the BJP might have to bank on the second preferential votes.

Congress

Congress is also eyeing the support of rebel JD(S) MLAs, but it would not suffice as the party needs 45 votes to elect their nominee. In case, the JD(S) decides to go ahead with the polls with their candidate in the fray, then Congress will be left with the only option of depending on second preferential votes with the support of JD(S).

JD(S)

The JD(S) is also in dilemma as it alone cannot win the seat. The resgional party is also dependent on the Congress and the BJP. Reportedly, former CM Kumaraswamy is holding talks with the national parties, seeking support.

Is it advantage BJP?

The BJP seems to be having an edge to win the seat in the current circumstances as bickering between the once coalition partners and now arch-rivals JDS and Congress is still visible. The move of JD(S) appears to be a key factor.

The elections to four seats of Rajya Sabha is necessitated as the term of office of members Nirmala Sitharaman (Union Finance Minister) and K C Ramamurthy of BJP, and Jairam Ramesh and late Oscar Fernandes of Congress is due to expire on June 30.