Rajasthan assembly polls: Only 5 won with more than 30 per cent margin

New Delhi, Jan 29: In the Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2018, 86 political parties and independents were in the fray. These included, 6 national political parties, 7 state political parties and 73 registered unrecognized parties. In comparison, during the 2013 Rajasthan State Assembly elections, 56 political parties were in the fray.

These included, 6 national political parties, 10 state political parties and 40 registered unrecognized parties. This reflects that there has been 54% increase in the number of political parties that contested in 2018 from 2013.

The Association for Democratic Reforms and Rajasthan Election Watch analysed the vote share for the 199 constituencies in the Rajasthan Assembly Elections, 2018. The elections in one constituency namely Ramgarh has not been held.

The voter's turnout for the Rajasthan Assembly 2018 was 74.6% whereas voter's turnout in 2013 assembly elections was 75.7%.

Vote Share of Winners

The winners of the Rajasthan State Assembly elections, 2018 won by an average of 45.6 % of total votes polled. In the 2013 elections winners won by an average of 47.4% of total votes polled.

66(33%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency
133(67%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

Out of 73 winners of BJP, 48(66%) won with less than 50 % of total votes polled in their constituencies. 58(59%) out of 99 winners from INC; 6(100%) out of 6 winners from BSP; 3(100%) out of 3 winners from Rashtriya Loktantrik Party; 2(100%) winners each from CPM and Bhartiya Tribal Party; 1(100%) winner from RLD and 13(100%) independent winner have won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency.

14(30%) out of 46 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

58(37%) out 158 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
All the winners of the Rajasthan State Assembly Elections, 2018 won with an average of 34.1% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represents on an average, 34.1% of the total electorate. In the Rajasthan State Assembly Elections, 2013 won by an average of 35.9% of the total registered votes.

Out of 73 winners of BJP, 59(81%) have won less than 40% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 73(74%) out of 99 winners from INC; 6(100%) winners from BSP; 3(100%) winners from Rashtriya Loktantrik Party; 2-2(100%) winners each from CPM and Bhartiya Tribal Party; 1(100%) winner from RLD and 12(92%) independent winners have won less than 40 % of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.

Victory margin:

• 9 winners have won with margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.
• Only 5 winners have won with more than 30% of margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

• 37 out of 46 winners with declared criminal cases have won against runners up with a clean background.
• Among these 37 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 20 % margin of victory.
• Among these, Kailash Chandra Meghwal (BJP) from Shahpura constituency won with 44% margin of victory.
• There are 29 winners with a clean background who have won against runners up with declared criminal cases. Out of these 29 winners, 3 have won with 20 % and above margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

• 30 out of 158 crorepati winners have won against non-crorepati runners up.
• Among these 30 winners, only 3 winners have won with more than 20 % margin of victory.
• Among these, Prithviraj (INC) from Todabhim constituency won with 45% margin of victory.
• There are 26 non-crorepati winners who have won against crorepati runners up. Only one of them has won with more than 20% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners:

• Among the 199 winners, 23 are women.
• None of the women winners has won with less than 30 % of Vote share.
• Among the women winners, Zahida Khan (INC) from Kaman Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 58% in her constituency. She has won with 47% representativeness and 21 % of margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners:

• Out of total 57 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30 % of vote share in their respective constituency. 13(23%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
• 18(32%) re-elected winners have won with less than 5% of margin of victory whereas 3 have won with more than 25% of margin of victory.

NOTA:

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. The total number of votes polled for None-of-the-above option were 4, 67,781 votes during the Rajasthan State Assembly Elections, 2018.