Opinion Poll Says BJP To Win Another Term If Lok Sabha Election Is Held Today

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to secure a solid majority with 315 out of the 543 total seats, if Lok Sabha elections were held today, the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll said.

According to the survey, the opposition combine I.N.D.I.A, led by the Congress, is expected to secure 172 Lok Sabha seats, while 'Others,' comprising regional parties and independents, are expected to garner 56 seats.

The opinion poll also suggests that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) strength in the Lok Sabha may decrease from 303 to 293, while the main opposition party, the Congress, is anticipated to increase its tally from 52 to 70 seats.

Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) is predicted to become the third-largest party in the Lok Sabha with 30 seats, an increase from its previous 22 seats. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) from Tamil Nadu is expected to secure the fourth-largest party status with 21 seats, which is three seats less than their previous count.

Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) may increase its seat count from six to eight, while Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to rise from one seat to six in the Lok Sabha. Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is expected to increase its seat count from 12 to 13, as per the projection. In contrast, Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (Shinde) may see its strength reduced from twelve to four.

The opinion poll survey highlights that Uttar Pradesh could be the biggest win for PM Modi, where the NDA is expected to secure 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP projected to win 71 seats and its ally Apna Dal to secure two. The opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A may win the remaining seven seats in UP.

Furthermore, the BJP is projected to win all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat and all five seats in Uttarakhand. In Karnataka, the NDA may secure 18 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats, with the remaining ten seats going to I.N.D.I.A. The I.N.D.I.A alliance, consisting of UDF and LDF, is predicted to sweep all 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, while in West Bengal, TMC-led I.N.D.I.A alliance may win 32 out of a total of 42 seats, with the remaining 10 seats going to NDA.

Here's the state-wise breakdown of seat projections:

• Uttar Pradesh (80): NDA 73, INDIA 7.
• Bihar (40): NDA -24, INDIA -16.
• Maharashtra (48): NDA -28, INDIA -20.
• Tamil Nadu (39): NDA -1, INDIA- 32, Others- 6.
• West Bengal (42): NDA- 10, INDIA -32.
• Karnataka (28): NDA -18, INDIA- 10, Others -0.
• Gujarat (26): NDA -26, INDIA -0.
• Kerala (20): NDA -0, INDIA-20.
• Rajasthan (25): NDA -23, INDIA- 2.
• Andhra Pradesh (25): NDA- 0, INDIA- 0, Others- 25.
• Odisha (21): NDA- 8, INDIA- 0, Others -13.
• Madhya Pradesh (29): NDA -25, INDIA -4.
• Telangana (17): NDA -6, INDIA -2, Others- 9.
• Assam (14): NDA- 12, INDIA- 1, Others- 1.
• Chhattisgarh (11): NDA -7, INDIA -4.
• Jharkhand (14): NDA- 13, INDIA- 1.
• Haryana (10): NDA -8, INDIA -2.
• Punjab (13): NDA- 1, INDIA -11, Others- 1.
• Delhi (7): NDA -7, INDIA- 0.
• Uttarakhand(5): NDA -5, INDIA- 0.
• Jammu and Kashmir/Ladakh (6): NDA -3, INDIA -2, Others -1.
• Himachal Pradesh (4): NDA-3, INDIA -1.
• Other NE states (11): NDA -8, INDIA- 3.
• Goa (2): NDA -2 , INDIA -0.
• Rest UT seats minus Ladakh (6): NDA -4, INDIA-2.

The major party-wise breakup is as follows:

• BJP 293,
• Congress 70,
• AAP 6,
• TMC 30,
• BJD 13,
• Shiv Sena (Shinde) 4,
• Shiv Sena (UBT) 8,
• Samajwadi Party 4,
• Bahujan Samaj Party 0,
• Rashtriya Janata Dal 7,
• Janata Dal-U 7,
• DMK 21,
• AIADMK 6,
• NCP (Sharad) 3,
• NCP (Ajit) 2,
• YSR Congress 15,
• TDP 10,
• Left Front 6,
• BRS 8,
• Others including independents 30.

TOTAL 543 seats.