Opinion Poll: Can Yogi-Led BJP Outperform SP In UP Elections? Here's What Survey Says

Opinion Poll For Uttar Pradesh Elections: The BJP suffered a major setback in the last Lok Sabha elections after reducing to 33 seats from 62 in the 2019 general elections. This was an unexpected blow to the saffron party, which was predicted to win over 70 seats in the pre-poll survey, after constructing the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.

What happens if the elections are held today? Well, the NDA would improve its performance as per India Today-Cvoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll. The ruling party is likely to win 43-45 seats while the INDIA bloc would win anywhere between 34-36, the survey claims.

The INDIA bloc had emerged as the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh, winning 37 seats while its ally Congress won 6 seats. Overall, the INDIA bloc's vote share is predicted to drop by two per cent.

This comes as a boost to the BJP after the setback in 2024.

An internal BJP report, released after its disappointing performance in the 2024 elections, highlighted key factors behind the party's decline in the Hindi heartland. Based on feedback from 40,000 party workers, the 15-page report identified significant issues, including an 8 per cent vote loss across six regions: Western UP, Braj, Kanpur-Bundelkhand, Awadh, Gorakhpur, and Kashi. Key grievances included arbitrary behaviour by state officials, widespread dissatisfaction over paper leaks in government job exams, and opposition gains from the state's handling of reservation policies.

Controversial statements by BJP leaders about constitutional changes and the Rajput community's displeasure further alienated voters. Additionally, early ticket distribution dampened worker enthusiasm by the later voting phases.

The report also underscored discontent over the old pension issue among government employees and the controversial Agnipath recruitment scheme for Army personnel. Voter list manipulations, with 30,000 to 40,000 core BJP supporters' names removed in nearly all seats, exacerbated the party's challenges. Furthermore, the state unit's neglect of low-level party workers' concerns deepened internal dissatisfaction. These combined factors contributed to the BJP's electoral setbacks, revealing systemic issues within the party's strategy and governance.