Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu Hold Key To BJP's Third Term: What's Next For India's Power Play?

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his incoming Andhra Pradesh counterpart Chandrababu Naidu have been positioned as kingmakers following Tuesday's Lok Sabha election result. This outcome left the BJP 32 seats short of a majority, necessitating their support to form and manage the new government.

The TDP, led by Naidu, secured 16 seats, while Kumar's JDU won 12 seats, making them the second and third-largest parties within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. The rest of the NDA collectively holds only 25 seats, insufficient to push the BJP's 240 MPs past the majority threshold of 272 needed to establish the government.

Photo Credit: PTI

Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu: What's Next For India's Power Play?

Narendra Modi, in his victory speech on Tuesday night, underscored the significance of the TDP and JDU to the BJP's aspiration for a third term, mentioning the two state leaders.

Speculation has arisen that the Congress-led INDIA bloc, which holds 232 seats, might attempt to woo Nitish Kumar, a founding member, back to its side. However, sources close to the Bihar Chief Minister have dismissed this possibility, while subtly reminding the BJP leadership of Kumar's departure from the INDIA bloc over delays in naming him as its Convenor.

Sources recounted the January 13 meeting, during which an agreement was reached to name Kumar as Convenor and Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge as Chairperson. This plan was postponed after Rahul Gandhi, the Wayanad and now Raebareli MP, requested a delay due to the absence of Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee. This intervention displeased the JDU, prompting Kumar and his aides, Rajeev Ranjan alias Lallan Singh and Sanjay Jha, to disconnect from the video conference.

Additional reasons for Kumar's exit from the bloc included a critical social media post by Rohini Acharya, daughter of long-time ally-rival Lalu Prasad Yadav. Nitish Kumar has maintained silence on the matter, even after being seen with former ally RJD's Tejashwi Yadav on a Patna-Delhi flight, en route to NDA and INDIA meetings to review poll results and strategize.

Sources have indicated that the JDU has conveyed its expectations to the BJP, including two cabinet posts, a junior Union Minister berth, and a common minimum programme. The Railways Minister position, previously held by Kumar, is among those sought by the party.

In the first two Modi governments, the BJP, not reliant on NDA partners for power, enforced a strict limit on berth allocation, granting only one post per allied party. This approach led to Kumar's departure from the NDA post-2019 general election, after ditching the Mahagathbandhan partner RJD and allying with the BJP.

Given the current necessity of Kumar's support, sources close to him expect the BJP to comply with the JDU's demands with minimal resistance. Should the BJP hesitate, the JDU may remind them of "other doors being open," a clear reference to potentially rejoining the INDIA bloc.

The BJP, recognizing the need for greater flexibility, is reportedly unwilling to concede key positions such as the Lok Sabha Speaker's Chair or critical ministries like Finance, Home, Defence, and External Affairs. In previous Modi administrations, allies received relatively low-profile portfolios, such as food processing and heavy industries.

The party, finishing the 2024 election as the single-largest, is also reluctant to relinquish control over key portfolios critical to its infrastructure and welfare agenda. Instead, the JDU may be offered roles in Panchayati Raj and Rural Development, while the TDP could be given Civil Aviation and Steel. Junior roles in significant ministries, like Finance, are also being considered.