A day after the Punjab assembly election were conducted on Saturday, Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal put out a sentimental message stating that his party would win. While several opinion polls had predicted a hung verdict, Dr Prannoy Roy of the NDTV has predicted that the AAP had the maximum chance of winning.
Roy says in his analysis that the AAP has a 55-60 per cent chance of winning the elections in Punjab. He says that the prediction is being made after speaking to 100s of people during a trip across the state.
The first forecast had said that the Congress had the best chance. Now after the field trip we are saying the AAP has a 55-60 per cent chance of winning. Our first estimates were based on studying opinion polls but now we have gone around the state and spoken to more people, Roy adds. He says that the Congress has a 20-35 per cent chance of winning while in the case of the Akali Dal it is 5-10 per cent.
Among the major issues pointed out by the voters are change and unemployment among others. Many said that they have tried both the Akali and Congress and now they want someone new. Unemployment was also another factor cited by the voters. Handling of the drug menace and also the sacrilege of the Holy Book were other issues cited. Many even recalled the hardship during demonetisation according to the survey.
Further it was also pointed out that the reason for the collapse of the Akalis over the past 10 years is because it had transformed into a dynastic party from a political party. The sacrilege incident and the fact that the guilty were not caught has also caused resentment among the public.
Roy says that the AAP takes a lot of the Akali Foundation way. The AAP is weaker in the Hindu areas and stronger in Sikh areas. The party has done very well in the east Malwa region. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP's voter percentage in the Sikh seats as at 27 per cent while in the Hindu seats it was at 19 per cent.
The AAP is the strongest in south east while the Akali in the West as per the statistics of the 2014 elections. The BJP is strongest in North while the Congress at North East and South West regions.