Mayawati's Role As Spoiler For The INDIA Bloc In Uttar Pradesh: How Did It Impact?

The BJP finished this Lok Sabha election with 240 seats, which is far fewer than the 370 it had aimed for and well short of the 303 it secured in 2019.

The government formation for a third term was made possible by the 53 seats contributed by NDA partners. However, the outcome could have been different if Mayawati had led her BSP into the INDIA bloc.

Mayawati Factor In UP Lok Sabha Election

In Uttar Pradesh, a state dominated by the BJP since the 'Modi wave' of 2014, a significant number of seats were lost. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats and nearly 50 percent of the votes, with its ally, the Apna Dal (Sonelal), adding two more. This time, the BJP won 33 seats and its vote share fell to 41.3 percent. The BSP contested 79 seats, finishing with 9.4 percent of the votes, but won zero seats, as per media reports.

However, in 16 seats-Akbarpur, Aligarh, Amroha, Bansgaon, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Deoria, Farrukhabad, Fatepur Sikri, Hardoi, Meerut, Mirzapur, Misrikh, Phulpur, Shahjahanpur, and Unnao-the BSP received more votes than the winning margin. If Mayawati had joined the opposition, votes might have shifted, potentially reducing the BJP's tally by all 16 seats.

The Impact of Potential Alliance

In these 16 seats, the BJP won 14 and the ADS secured two. In some cases, such as Bansgaon, Farrukhabad, and Phulpur, the winning margins were less than 5,000, while the BSP candidates received over 64,000, 45,000, and 82,000 votes, respectively. In Meerut, the BJP's winning margin was 10,585 votes, while the BSP got 87,025, as reported by NDTV. In Bhadohi, where a Trinamool candidate was backed by the SP cadre, the BJP won by 44,000 votes, and the BSP candidate received over 1.55 lakh votes.

Had these seats been lost, the BJP would have ended with 224 seats and the NDA with 277 seats, just five above the majority mark. This scenario would have elevated the INDIA bloc to 248 seats-not enough to claim victory but enough to highlight the 'kingmaker' role of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United).

The Role of 'Kingmakers' and the INDIA Bloc

The TDP won 16 seats and the JDU 12. Removing these 28 seats from the BJP coalition would leave them with 265 seats-not enough for Narendra Modi to secure a historic third term. The importance of Naidu and Nitish Kumar was underscored by Narendra Modi in his victory speech and plans for them to accompany him when he met President Droupadi Murmu to formally stake a claim to form the government, as reported by NDTV.

What the INDIA Bloc Said

The opposition met in Delhi on Thursday, amidst speculation that an attempt would be made to flip 28 seats by reaching out to Naidu and Nitish Kumar. This would not be enough for the opposition to stake a claim to the government, but it would significantly undermine the BJP's position. After the meeting, Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge stated that the opposition would "take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realize people's desire not to be ruled by BJP."