Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Coastal Belt's Influence on Mahayuti and MVA Alliances

The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra are set against the backdrop of the serene coastal belt, including Mumbai. This region will witness a significant contest between the Mahayuti and MVA alliances, particularly between two rival Shiv Sena factions. The elections will take place on November 20, with results announced on November 23.

The Mumbai metropolitan area, part of the most urbanised and industrialised region, sends 75 MLAs to the assembly and 12 members to Lok Sabha. The coastal Konkan division, stretching from Sindhudurg to Mumbai, also includes Palghar, Thane, Raigad, and Ratnagiri districts. In recent Lok Sabha polls, the Mahayuti alliance secured seven seats.

Key Political Dynamics

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, BJP emerged victorious in Palghar, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, and Mumbai North. Meanwhile, NCP leader Sunil Tatkare retained his seat in Raigad. Former Union Minister Narayan Rane is expected to play a crucial role for BJP in the Konkan region during the upcoming polls.

Thane City and Worli in Mumbai are anticipated to be key battlegrounds. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Kopri-Pachpakdi constituency and Shiv Sena UBT leader Aaditya Thackeray's reelection bid in Worli are pivotal. The contest is primarily a rivalry between Shiv Sena factions, raising stakes significantly.

Urban Challenges and Political Shifts

Urban issues such as housing, urban poverty, and infrastructure challenges dominate discussions as the region faces rapid population growth. Over time, Congress has lost influence in Mumbai, ceding ground to Shiv Sena UBT within the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The 75 constituencies include tribal-dominated Palghar with six seats and Thane with 18 seats.

The political landscape is complex with rivalries and shifting alliances. Vidarbha's 62 assembly constituencies hold political significance with leaders like Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and opposition leader Vijay Wadettiwar. Congress aims to regain ground against BJP's substantial past decade inroads.

Regional Dynamics

Marathwada region, known for Maratha quota agitation, has 46 assembly segments. It is expected to see a contest primarily between Congress and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena UBT. North Maharashtra holds 47 seats with agriculture as a key issue. Political heavyweights from various parties dominate this region.

The Congress had previously won Dhule and Nandurbar Lok Sabha constituencies here. With 58 assembly seats, a high-stakes rivalry is anticipated between Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar in Baramati. A riveting battle may unfold if Ajit Pawar's nephew Yugendra Pawar is fielded by NCP SP.

BJP's Electoral Challenge

The assembly elections are seen as a critical test for BJP after its dominance over the past decade in Maharashtra. Following disappointing Lok Sabha results in 2024 where its tally fell to nine from 23, BJP aims to reclaim its standing. The Haryana victory has boosted party morale.

In 2014, BJP won 122 seats but saw a decline to 105 seats in alliance with undivided Shiv Sena in 2019. Conversely, Congress aims to solidify its position within MVA after its recent performance in Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra. In the 2019 assembly elections, Congress won 44 seats despite several leaders crossing over to BJP.

The political landscape reflected complexity during regional tallies five years ago. After Shiv Sena split in June 2022, two byelections were held where Sena UBT won Andheri east seat in Mumbai and Congress wrested Kasba segment from BJP.