Maharashtra Assembly Polls Survey: Will MVA Displace Ruling BJP-Led NDA In Upcoming Elections?

Maharashtra is set for one of the most closely watched electoral battles this year, with Assembly elections scheduled alongside Haryana, Jharkhand, and potentially Jammu and Kashmir. The current term of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly has been marked by dramatic shifts in political alliances and leadership, making this election particularly significant.

The 2019 Assembly elections saw the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance emerge victorious. However, the alliance soon unravelled when Uddhav Thackeray decided to break away from the BJP and form Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government with the NCP and Congress. This move led to a dramatic power play, with BJP surprising many by bringing Ajit Pawar into the fold, creating a rift within the NCP. Despite this turmoil, Sharad Pawar managed to reunite the NCP and successfully formed a government with Congress and Shiv Sena.

The term has been tumultuous, featuring three chief ministers and as many governments within five years. Uddhav Thackeray's tenure ended after a faction led by Eknath Shinde split from Shiv Sena and aligned with the BJP. Shortly thereafter, Ajit Pawar's faction also defected from the NCP to join the NDA.

The BJP-led NDA, however, faced a significant setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The coalition won only 18 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, a stark contrast to the 23 seats secured in 2019. The MVA, which includes Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar, emerged as the dominant force with 30 seats. The Congress performed notably well, securing 13 seats, while the NDA's vote share fell to 43.55 per cent, trailing slightly behind the MVA's 43.71 per cent.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has begun preparations for the upcoming Assembly elections. The process of updating the electoral rolls is underway, with the final roll set to be published on August 30.

Early survey predictions suggest that the MVA is likely to secure a decisive victory in the Assembly elections. According to internal surveys conducted by the Opposition alliance, the MVA is projected to win 165 of the 288 Assembly seats, surpassing the halfway mark of 144 needed to form a government, Money Control reported citing a report in The Times of India.

The MVA is reported to have a strong lead in regions such as Nagpur, Amravati, Marathwada, and western Maharashtra, while the ruling Mahayuti-comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, and the NCP (Ajit Pawar)-retains its influence in Mumbai, Konkan, and north Maharashtra.