Madhya Pradesh: Lokniti-CSDS Survey Explains How The BJP Defied Anti-Incumbency And Retained Power?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) successfully countered anti-incumbency and secured a convincing victory in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, employing a meticulously planned strategy that focused on candidate selection, leadership projection, and highlighting the success of welfare programs.

With a 7.5% surge in vote share, the BJP secured over 70% of the State Assembly seats. Conversely, despite a mere 0.5% dip in vote share, the Congress lost over 40% of seats compared to its 2018 performance.

The Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey in Madhya Pradesh provides valuable insights into the factors contributing to the BJP's victory. The findings reveal:

High satisfaction levels with both the Modi-led central government and the Chauhan-led State government favored the BJP. Seven out of ten voters were content with the Central government's performance, while six out of ten expressed satisfaction with the State government. The BJP commenced its campaign in Madhya Pradesh emphasizing the Prime Minister's leadership and the collective state-level leadership. As the campaign progressed, a subtle shift in strategy was noticeable. While maintaining the collective leadership model at the State level, Shivaraj Singh Chauhan stood out more as a 'first among equals.' Additionally, unwavering support for the BJP was bolstered by the popularity of both Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Chauhan.

In the Congress's case, the party's Chief Ministerial face, Kamal Nath, garnered backing from party supporters, as did Rahul Gandhi. However, the party seemed to peak prematurely in the campaign. Releasing its electoral pledges early provided the BJP with an opportunity to devise a counter strategy. Notably, a quarter of the survey respondents revealed that they decided whom to vote for in the campaign's final days, while four in ten made their choice after the candidates' declarations. The BJP gained greater support among these late deciders compared to the Congress.

The welfare schemes executed by both Central and State governments seemed to have driven more backing for the BJP. Those benefitting from farmer welfare schemes tended to support the BJP. Similarly, welfare initiatives for women - like the Ladli Lakshmi and Ladli Behena schemes - aided the BJP in garnering support. Those benefiting from these schemes were more inclined to vote for the BJP (further articles in this series elaborate on this aspect).

The Lokniti-CSDS survey delineates the demographic profile of BJP and Congress supporters. The BJP performed exceptionally well among younger voters, enjoying a seven-percentage-point edge among those under 25 and a fourteen-percentage-point advantage among 26-to-35-year-olds. The gap between the parties was smallest among older voters, with the BJP merely six percentage points ahead. Six out of ten voters with higher education favored the BJP, giving the party a twenty-six-percentage-point advantage over the Congress. The BJP held a fourteen-percentage-point edge over the Congress in urban areas.

The BJP's resurgence in Madhya Pradesh was a result of its dedicated support base among voters, the perception of Central and State government initiatives, and implemented welfare programs. Its election campaign aptly addressed key issues at pivotal junctures, granting the party a decisive edge.