Lok Sabha Poll Predictions For Maharashtra: Can BJP Repeat Its 2019 Performance?

Maharashtra has long been a political puzzle due to its fractured landscape, with parties like Shiv Sena and NCP split into multiple factions. Beyond the dominant BJP and Congress, four other contenders are poised to shake things up. Can the BJP replicate its 2019 success in 2024?

According to Lok Poll, the BJP is projected to suffer significant losses in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. From its 2019 tally of 41 seats, the saffron party is expected to secure only 21-24 seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, comprising Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, is forecasted to claim 9-12 seats.

In the previous general elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena formed an alliance, securing 23 and 18 seats, respectively. However, the situation has shifted dramatically in 2024, with factions of both Shiv Sena and NCP aligning with the NDA.

In the last elections, Congress and NCP formed a coalition but managed only five seats, while AIMIM and an independent candidate each secured one.

The survey, based on 1350 samples from each of Maharashtra's 48 Lok Sabha constituencies, indicates that the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar struggle to convert their vote share into seats.

For the INDIA bloc, seat-sharing conflicts within the alliance could cost them seats in areas like Sangli, Bhiwandi, and Mumbai South Central.

Anti-incumbency sentiments against sitting MPs may dent the NDA's prospects, compounded by low vote transferability among its partners. Also, the consolidation of Muslim, SC, and ST votes may favor the INDIA bloc. Lastly, Maratha discontent poses a challenge to the BJP.

MNS Extends Support To NDA

Meanwhile, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray has offered unconditional support to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Addressing the party's Gudi Padwa rally in Mumbai on Tuesday, Thackeray said, "The MNS is giving unconditional support to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the NDA. Now all start and prepare for (Maharashtra) assembly elections."