BJP-Led NDA Alliance Unlikely To Reach 400 Seats In Lok Sabha Elections

The counting of votes in the Lok Sabha elections suggests that the BJP-led NDA alliance may not reach its goal of winning over 400 seats. The BJP aimed for 370 seats for itself and over 400 for the NDA. However, trends from the Election Commission indicate this is unlikely.

Opposition’s campaign around reservation scare succeeds! In this election campaign, the opposition’s India Alliance ran a campaign against the BJP that in case the NDA crosses 400 seats, it will amend the Constitution to do away with the reservations for OBCs, Dalits and tribals. Going by the trends, it seems that the BJP and the NDA combine failed to counter this narrative spun by the opposition to convince the voters.

Muslim reservation issue seems to have backfired! It seems that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persistent pitch for a separate quota for Muslims during the election campaign backfired as Muslims seem to have voted aggressively against him. While on the one hand, the opposition’s scare campaign about the NDA changing the Constitution in case it wins over 400 seats seems to have kept the OBC and Dalit voters away from the BJP and the NDA, on the other hand, the Muslim votes seem to have consolidated in favour of candidates who were seen to be defeating the BJP and the NDA.

Promise of putting Rs 1 lakh per annum in women’s accounts seems to have worked The Congress-led UPA alliance had promised to put Rs 1 lakh into the accounts of women in its manifesto. Women voters have outnumbered men voters in several states, including in the Hindi heartland. It seems that Modi government’s beneficiary cards failed to counter this promise made by the opposition.

Anti-incumbency against the sitting NDA MPs While the BJP tried to change candidates on many seats, it seems to have been constrained by caste equations in many seats. As a result, it seems that both those whose tickets were changed managed to damage the party by working against it covertly and in case of those whose tickets were not changed, their supporters seem to have deserted them at the local level. This seems to have been a big problem in case of BJP’s allies like the JD(U) and the Shiv Sena.

Failure to generate Modi wave In 2014, the Modi government had come to power riding on the Modi wave on the back of huge anti-incumbency against the UPA government which had completed 10 years in power. In 2019, post the Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrikes, there was a sense of nationalism across the country. However, the BJP and the NDA failed to find a similar emotive issue in 2024.