Karnataka elections survey: How many seats will BJP, Congress, JD(S) win in 2023?

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurating Bengaluru-Mysuru Expressway in Mandya on Sunday, the election fever is slowly gripping across Karnataka. All three leading parties are leaving no stone unturned to woo voters.

While the ruling BJP is trying hard to beat anti-incumbency and corruption allegations, the trends seem to be not going in its favour as a poll survey has indicated that the lotus is unlikely to bloom in Karnataka this time.

According to Lok Poll survey, Congress is set to return to power with a simple majority. The grand old party is projected to win 116-122 seats in the 224-member Karnataka assembly. It is predicted to get 39-42 per cent votes. In comparison, the ruling party would emerge victorious in 77-83 seats with a vote share of 33-36 per cent.

Last but not least, JD (S), which is hoping to become kingmaker as always, might win around 21-27 seats with a 15-18 per cent vote share. The pollster has predicted others to win 1-4 seats with a vote share of 6-9 per cent votes.

Over 200 samples were collected from each of the 224 seats with an appropriate sample size of 45,000 collected from January 15 to February 28, a statement from Lok Poll said. For sample collections, 30 booths were randomly selected in each assembly constituency.

Zonal Wise Issues

The report says that lack of development, coupled with the failure to provide reservations to Koli community has created a sense of disgruntlement amongst the voters in Kalyana Karnataka. With Congress elevating Mallikarjuna Kharge as its National President, the party is set to get a chunk of votes. However, former BJP leader Janardhan Reddy's outfit is expected to eat into both Congress and BJP's votes.

Congress is gaining to some extent in Kittur Karnataka although the strong organisation of the RSS has helped the BJP to have control over the region. In the old Mysuru region, the JD(S) is taking a beating due to the rising BJP. The corruption issue and failing infrastructure are likely to help Congress win over more seats in Bengaluru.

The lack of representation of Billavas community, price rise and farmer issues are key issues the BJP is facing in its stronghold of coastal Karnataka. In Central Karnataka, the ruling party is facing a leadership crisis as there is no leader to meet the stature of BS Yediyurappa.

How Parties are Faring (Zonal Wise)?
Except for coastal and central Karnataka, Congress is ahead of BJP in all other regions - Old Mysuru, Kalyana Karnataka, Bengaluru and Kittur Karnataka. The unemployment issue, price hike on essential commodities and the government's inability to create MSP are not working in the BJP's favour. However, it continues to get support from government employees, the survey claims.

The survey claims that Congress' announcement that Rs 2000 for every woman in a household has attracted women, the survey adds.