Karnataka elections: Can Cong be first incumbent govt since 1985 to retain power?
Will it be a clear mandate or will it be a hung assembly in Karnataka? There are three opinion polls that have come out in the past few days of which 1 has predicted a clear winner while the other two say it would be a hung house.
If the Congress manages to pull off this election, then it would be the first time since 1985 that an incumbent government would be retaining power. Siddaramaiah and the Congress would look to wade away this factor while the BJP would hope to ride on it.
The survey conducted by C-Fore gives the Congress a clear mandate. In fact, it goes on to state that the Congress would better its 2013 tally. The poll which was commissioned by the Congress states that the party is expected to win around 124 seats. The same group had predicted 199-120 seats for the Congress in 2013 and the party ended up with 122. This agency has not been off the mark in the past as well and had predicted a BJP win in 2008.
The other two polls hint towards a hung assembly with the JD(S) being the major player in the formation of a government. CHS in its survey suggests that it is a close fight between the Congress and BJP, but also states that both will not be close to the majority mark.
CHS says that the Congress would get 77-81 while the BJP would end up with 73-76. In the case of the JD(S), it would be 64-66.
The TV-9 C Voter survey says that the Congress would end up as the largest party, but would fall short of the majority mark. The poll agency gave the Congress 102, BJP-92 and JD(S)- 25.
|Karnataka Assembly Election dates|
|Date of notification||April 17|
|Last date to file nominations||April 24|
|Last date to withdraw nominations||April 27|
|Date of polling||May 12|
|Date of counting||May 15|