Tamil Nadu Election Pre Poll Survey: Who Will Win The Elections? Matrize Predictions Out

In what could be a surprising or a shock to the election trackers, a survey has predicted that the BJP-led NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu will defeat the ruling DMK in the upcoming state elections.

The NDA is fighting the elections under former Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami's leadership and recent surveys had indicated that the Stalin's government is set to return to power. However, the latest poll has something different to say.

The opinion poll conducted by IANS-Matrize has claimed that the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) could edge past the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, unseating the government led by Chief Minister MK Stalin.

According to the IANS-Matrize opinion poll, the AIADMK-led alliance is projected to secure between 39 and 40 per cent of the vote share. This could translate into roughly 114 to 127 seats in the 234-member Assembly, putting the opposition alliance within striking distance of forming the next government. In contrast, the ruling DMK alliance is expected to garner around 37 to 38 per cent of the vote share, which may convert into 104 to 114 seats.

The poll suggests that AIADMK's advantage over the DMK remains fairly consistent across most regions of the state. However, the ruling party continues to maintain a strong foothold in certain pockets.

In particular, the Chennai region appears to remain a bastion for the DMK. The survey indicates that the party is likely to outperform its principal rival in the metropolitan region by a margin of around seven to eight percentage points in vote share. The DMK is projected to capture a substantial portion of the 37 Assembly constituencies located in and around the capital city.

Is Vijay's TVK Entry Making A Big Difference?

One of the most notable developments highlighted by the survey is the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his newly launched party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The party, which is entering electoral politics for the first time, is seen as a possible disruptor in Tamil Nadu's long-standing Dravidian political landscape dominated by the DMK and AIADMK.

As per the opinion poll, TVK is estimated to secure around 14 to 15 per cent of the vote share statewide. If this projection holds true, the new outfit may win between six and twelve seats in the Assembly, making it a key player that could influence the final outcome in several constituencies.

The survey's findings come as a surprise to many political observers, as several earlier polls had predicted that the DMK would comfortably retain power in the state. The new projections therefore suggest that the electoral contest may be far more competitive than previously expected.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India has announced that polling for the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly will take place in a single phase on April 23. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.

According to official data released by the Election Commission, the state has approximately 5.67 crore eligible voters. This includes about 2.77 crore male voters and 2.89 crore female voters. Additionally, around 12.51 lakh voters will be casting their ballots for the first time in this election.

In the previous Assembly election held in 2021, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance had registered a sweeping victory. The DMK itself secured 133 seats in the Assembly, a significant rise from the 98 seats it had won in 2016. Overall, the alliance won 159 seats, paving the way for M. K. Stalin to form the government.

On the other hand, the AIADMK, which had ruled the state for two consecutive terms prior to that election, suffered a major setback. Contesting as part of the National Democratic Alliance, the party's tally fell sharply to 66 seats, down from the 136 seats it had won in 2016.

With the latest opinion poll indicating a possible shift in voter sentiment, the upcoming election is shaping up to be a closely watched contest that could reshape Tamil Nadu's political landscape.