Jharkhand verdict today: Would exit polls get it right?

Ranchi, Dec 23: The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress alliance appears to be cruising through in the Jharkhand Assembly election with 43 seats against the ruling BJP's 27.

As per recent trends, the JMM is leading in 25 seats while its alliance partner Congress is ahead in 11 and the RJD in five. The JVM(P) is leading in four seats while the AJSU Party is ahead in three and the BSP in two constituencies. 41 is the majority mark in the 81-seat house.

Though exit polls do not always get it right, this time most of the exit polls have predicted a victory for the Congress-JMM-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance and incumbent Raghubar Das-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) likely to fall significantly short of the majority mark.

According to the India Today-Axis exit poll, the BJP was on course to win 22 to 32 seats in the Jharkhand Assembly.

It said the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance could win 38 to 50-seats, while the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) likely to win 2 to 4-seats, All Jharkhand Students Union 3 to 5-seats and others 4 to 7 seats.

The Times Now exit poll said the JMM-led alliance could win 44-seats and the BJP 28. The IANS-CVoter-ABP exit poll forecasted 31 to 39-seats for the JMM-led alliance and 28 to 36-seats for the BJP.

For the BJP, the result was largely dependant on whether the non-tribal votes had consolidated or not. The BJP has a non-tribal CM candidate. The tribal votes make up for 29 per cent o the electorate. Hence, it could be said that the BJP took a gamble in going with a non-tribal candidate.

The party was hoping that this gamble would pay off like it did in Haryana. In Haryana, it was the non-Jat consolidation that helped the BJP win the elections.

Out of the 81 assembly seats, parties need 41 seats to gain a majority in the Assembly.

The ruling BJP and main opposition party Congress battling it out with the smaller regional parties like AJSU Party, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and Rashtriya Janata Dal trying to play a major part in this assembly elections.