Jharkhand Exit Polls 2024: Is BJP Returning To Power? Here's What ABP-Matrize Survey Claims

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led alliance is poised for a significant victory in Jharkhand, as per the ABP-Matrize exit poll.

The BJP is anticipated to secure between 42 to 47 seats, overshadowing the incumbent Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), which is expected to garner 25 to seats. However, the independents are predicted to bag 1-4 seats. This forecast suggests a substantial shift in the political landscape of Jharkhand, potentially altering the current balance of power.

The JMM, in an effort to cling to power, has been emphasizing its welfare programs. Conversely, the BJP has intensified its campaign, focusing on themes of Hindutva, the alleged infiltration from Bangladesh, and the corruption within the present ruling coalition. This strategy seems to have resonated with a significant portion of the electorate, as indicated by the projected outcomes.

During the campaign, the BJP brought its heavyweights to the forefront. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP President JP Nadda, and chief ministers from several states all participated in rallies. They criticized the JMM-led coalition for corruption and for allegedly allowing infiltration. This strategic move by the BJP to deploy its top leaders for campaigning in Jharkhand underscores the importance the party places on winning the state.

On the other side, the INDIA bloc, which includes the Congress, JMM, and other parties, saw prominent figures like Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren, and his wife, legislator Kalpana Soren, actively campaigning. They promised to continue welfare schemes and accused the central government, led by the BJP, of misusing federal agencies against opposition parties. Despite these efforts, the survey indicates that the INDIA bloc might not be able to sway the electorate in its favor as effectively as hoped.

In the previous 2019 assembly elections, the competition was fierce, with the JMM securing 30 seats and the BJP 25, a decrease from its 37 seats in 2014. However, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance managed to win a comfortable majority with 47 seats. This year, the BJP and its allies, such as the AJSU Party, JD(U), and Lok Janshakti (Ram Vilas), have fielded candidates across 81 seats, with the BJP contesting in 68 of them. The INDIA bloc, with JMM contesting in 43 seats, Congress 30, RJD 6, and CPI(ML) 4, has also seen 'friendly fights' on some seats, indicating a robust contest across the board.

The reserved seats, which include 28 for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates and nine for Scheduled Caste (SC) contestants, have historically played a crucial role in determining the election's outcome. In 2019, the JMM won 2 SC and 19 ST reserved seats, while the BJP secured 6 SC and 2 ST seats, highlighting the diverse support base each party enjoys among different communities.