India to receive normal monsoon this year, El Nino likely this season

India is predicted to receive a normal monsoon this year in the southwest region while the northwest, central and northeastern areas will witness normal to below-normal rainfall, the government said on Tuesday.

El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be seen during the second half of the season, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

IMD clarified that all El Nino are not bad monsoon years. It also said that current La Lina conditions, which is usually favourable to monsoon, has changed to neutral over equatorial Pacific region.

''Around 83.5cm of rainfall is expected for the monsoon months. During June-September, there is a 67 per cent probability for normal to above normal rainfall,'' said IMD DGM M Mohapatra. He further said, El Nino conditions are likely to develop during monsoon season. El Nino impact may be felt during the second half of the monsoon. ''About 40 per cent of El Nino years in the past were years with normal or above normal monsoon rainfall,'' he added

El Nino is a climate pattern that occurs when the waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This causes changes in the atmospheric circulation, which can lead to weather extremes in many parts of the world.

During El Nino conditions, the trade winds weaken or even reverse, and the warm water that has accumulated in the western Pacific moves eastward towards the Americas. As a result, there is less upwelling of cold water along the coast of South America, leading to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in that region.

These warmer waters affect the atmosphere above them, leading to changes in the global climate.

El Nino conditions typically occur every two to seven years and can last for several months to a year or more. The opposite of El Nino is La Nina, which is characterised by cooler than normal waters in the central and eastern Pacific.