India's Monsoon 2026: Why June Rainfall Has Plunged To Historic Lows And What It Means For Agriculture

India is heading towards one of its driest Junes in more than a century, with monsoon rainfall likely to rank as the third lowest in 126 years if the final daily numbers do not change sharply. The country had received only 92.1 mm of rain till Monday, leaving a national deficit of 42 per cent for the month.

The scale of the shortfall is significant because June marks the first month of the southwest monsoon, which supplies nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. For farmers, reservoir managers and policymakers, a weak start does not automatically mean a failed season, but it narrows the window for timely sowing and water planning.

June rainfall close to historic lows

India Meteorological Department records since 1901 show that June rainfall has fallen below 100 mm in only four years. The lowest was in 2009, when the country received 87.5 mm. The second lowest was in 1905, with 92.3 mm. This June’s 92.1 mm tally, if confirmed at month-end, could place it below 1905 and make it the second or third worst June on record, depending on the final update.

Other exceptionally weak Junes include 2014, when India recorded 93 mm, and 1926, when the month ended with 97.4 mm. Three more poor starts were seen in 1902, 1912 and 1923, with 109 mm, 106.8 mm and 101.7 mm respectively. The long period average for June rainfall is over 165 mm, underlining the severity of the current deficit.

The final ranking will depend on rainfall recorded on the last day of the month and the IMD’s consolidated data. However, the present figure already puts this June among the most deficient opening monsoon months in the official rainfall series.

Delayed monsoon spread deepens concern

The weak performance is linked not only to lower rainfall but also to the delayed and uneven advance of the southwest monsoon. The monsoon arrived late this year and then stalled for nearly 11 days, slowing its progress across large parts of the country during a critical agricultural period.

It has still not covered several important regions in central, northern and western India. These include agriculturally significant states such as Uttar Pradesh, a large part of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The delay matters because kharif sowing is closely tied to the arrival of dependable rains, especially in rain-fed farming belts.

Even in states where the monsoon has arrived, rainfall has remained significantly below normal in several places. Maharashtra, Odisha, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Telangana are among the states where the monsoon’s arrival has not translated into adequate showers so far. Such uneven distribution can create stress despite the broader declaration of monsoon onset.

Delhi also missed its normal monsoon onset date of June 27. Meteorologists have indicated that the national capital may receive monsoon showers in the first week of July. The delay is not unusual in isolation, but it adds to the wider picture of a sluggish monsoon advance this year.

Why a weak June does not decide the whole monsoon

A poor June raises concern, but meteorologists caution against treating it as a final verdict on the entire monsoon season. The southwest monsoon runs from June to September, and rainfall in July and August often has a larger bearing on agricultural output, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge.

Rainfall distribution is also as important as the national average. A single countrywide deficit can hide sharp regional differences. Some districts may receive good showers while others remain dry. For agriculture, the timing and spread of rain can matter more than the headline all-India number.

Former director general of meteorology K J Ramesh said it would be premature to panic despite the poor June rainfall. “If you look at the states where the monsoon has reached, the rainfall is good so far. Also, the ground water and reservoir situation is not so bad because of last year's excess rainfall,” he said.

That buffer is important because reservoirs and groundwater levels can soften the immediate impact of delayed rains. However, prolonged weakness in July would be more worrying, particularly for rain-fed crops, drinking water supply and hydropower generation in some regions.

El Nino risk keeps policymakers watchful

The weak start has come amid concerns over a strong El Nino, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that can affect monsoon behaviour over India. El Nino does not always cause drought, but it has historically been associated with weaker monsoon years in several cases.

The IMD last month downgraded its long-range monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the seasonal average rainfall for June to September. That forecast placed the season in the deficient category, increasing the need for close monitoring by central and state authorities.

For farmers, the immediate challenge is deciding when to sow and whether to wait for more reliable rainfall. Early sowing followed by a dry spell can damage seedlings and increase input costs. Delayed sowing can also affect crop choice, yields and market arrivals later in the season.

The next few weeks will be crucial. If the monsoon revives and advances into the remaining regions quickly, June’s historic deficit may become a weak start rather than a season-defining crisis. But if the rainfall gap persists into July, pressure will rise on agriculture planning, reservoir management and state-level contingency measures.