INDIA Bloc Defies Exit Poll: Did Pollsters Underestimate The Undercurrent?

The dance of democracy is finally showing its true moves. As the nation awaits with bated breath, the early trends point towards a victory for BJP. However, there's a caveat. The united opposition bloc, INDIA, seems to have exceeded the expectations of all the poll pundits.

Most of the exit polls had predicted only around a meagre 180 seats for the INDIA alliance - one-third of the total seats in the Lok Sabha. But now, as the numbers have started to trickle in, it looks the INDIA bloc has definitely dented PM Modi-led NDA's dream of a landslide victory.

Photo Credit: PTI Image

The early trends show us that Opposition has made unprecedented poll gains compared to their numbers in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The INDIA bloc has crossed 232 seats as this report is being filed. Of this, Congress alone has won 94 seats, a solid gain from its dismal 52 seats in the previous elections. If the trends go as they are, Congress is poised to cross the three-digit mark - its biggest tally since 2014.

Uttar Pradesh springs a surprise

It's the Hindi heart land state of Uttar Pradesh - bastion for the saffron party for two decades - that seems to have stung BJP the most. The Opposition has made significant strides in UP this time, shattering every predictions of the exit polls. It's Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party that has to be credited for the massive gains for INDIA bloc. The Opposition is leading in 41 seats, while the NDA is trailing behind at a close 37.

Smriti Irani, BJP's star campaigner, is trailing behind Congress' Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi by a huge margin. Irani led a major campaign against the Congress in the Gandhi family's bastion, and was pitted against Sharma, a Congress ground worker of three decades. The picture on the Amethi throne will get clear as and when new numbers start coming in.

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi is poised for a sweeping victory on his family's home turf of Rae Bareli with over 29,000 votes, totally unsettling the BJP candidate Dinesh Pratap Singh.

What pollsters predicted?

The News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted a landslide victory for the NDA with anywhere between 355 to 370 seats. Of this, the BJP itself was poised to get around 305 to 315 seats. On the other hand, INDIA was given 125 to 140 seats by the News18 pollsters, of which Congress had a slender tally of just 62 to 72 seats.

The most reputed exit poll agency - Today's Chanakya - credited for their pin-point accuracy in the past two Lok Sabha campaigns, even went a few steps ahead than its counterparts and predicted 400+ seats for NDA. INDIA bloc, as per them, were restricted to a meagre 96 to 118 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar's pollsters predicted around 145 to 201 seats for INDIA. Jan Ki Baat gave 141 to 161 seats.

One of the most renowned pollster, India Today-My Axis, estimated INDIA to get 131 to 166 seats.

C-Voter predicted 152 to 182 seats for INDIA, while News-D Dynamics said it would bag around 125 seats.

INDIA bloc pulls an Uno reverse

Looks like the poll pundits had no clue of what's about to cotme. INDIA bloc has played a reverse uno card right under the nose of the pollsters. The Opposition's united face has already gained 77 more seats compared to their 2019 tally. It also shows that NDA is down by 49 seats.

The exact picture will be clear only once the EC declares the final numbers. Until then, the INDIA bloc has a lot to cheer about.