In The Siddaramaiah Vs Somanna Battle What Does the Massive Voter Turnout in Varuna Mean?

The Varuna assembly seat in Karnataka is the most closely watched. All eyes would be on the seat as counting begins at 7 am on May 13.

The battle is a high-profile one as it would be a contest between Congress leader Siddaramaiah and BJP's Lingayat strongman V Somanna. The battle got even more interesting as when compared to the 2018 elections, there has been an increased voter turn out. The official data by the Election Commission says that this time the voter turnout was 24,000 more when compared to 2018.

This time as many as 1,98,740 persons voted on May 10 in Varuna, which means that the voter turnout stood at 84.7 per cent. This is in fact the highest ever voter turnout since the segment was carved out of the Chamundeshwari T Narasipura and Nanjangud constituencies following the delimitation exercise in 2008.

The question that arises now is what difference does a high voter turnout in Varuna mean. OneIndia caught up with leading political analyst Dr. Sandeep Shastri to understand this phenomenon. He says that there is no empirical proof that a high voter turnout means anything.

The high voter turnout in Varuna could mean two things. Siddaramaiah has said that this is his last election. Has the voter kept that in mind and come out in large numbers? "Or has the challenger been able to bring in voters from the social segments that he represents," Dr Shastri asks.

He says, "If I go with the one or two exit polls, it shows that that the Varuna seat favours Siddaramaiah. However it is too difficult to project at this stage."

He goes on to add that if one looks at the exit polls in the case of Kalyan Karnataka, the voter turnout has been higher when compared to the last elections. This only indicates that there is clear competition in the region. It also signifies that it would not not be triangular competition, but a bi-polar fight, he adds.

Sources in the Siddaramaiah camp say that the high voter turnout is an indicator that the people have voted for him to become the next chief minister. Sumanna's supporters on the other hand say that this time around Siddaramaiah will have a shock defeat in the constituency. The high voter turnout means that the Lingayats have come out in large numbers in a bid to support Somanna and defeat Siddaramaiah a supporter informed.

While Siddaramaiah's followers said that their leader would win by a margin of 25,000 votes, Kommana's supporters are confidence that their leader would win by a margin of 11,000 votes.