In Karnataka as BJP, Cong battle out own set of problems, JD(S) eyes number 40

In Karnataka every party has its advantages and disadvantages. At this given point it would be hard to predict a winner

Karnataka is set to vote in April or May and all eyes are on the elections, which is a hotly contested battle.

Speaking about who has the upper hand right now, it would be very hard to tell and the reports from the ground suggest that it is an equally contested battle as of now.

There is one clear advantage that any party has when it comes to Karnataka. The BJP, Congress and Janata Dal (S) all have its fair share of problems.

If one looks at the voting pattern in Karnataka, since 1978, the party has followed the policy of ousting the party in power. However from 2004, the state has been delivered split verdicts, which have all led to hung assemblies. Thanks to this, the Janata Dal (S) has played kingmaker both in 2004 and 2018. The JD(S) has managed to win in the range of 30-40 seats and this has very often dented the chances of the other parties which have fallen short of the magic mark. The 2013 verdict however was not a split one and the Congress managed to win the elections comfortably.

There are many issues going into the elections. However one big one for the BJP would be according of minority status to the Veerashaiva Lingayat community. This had become the bone of contention during the 2018 elections and became one of the main reasons why the Congress ended up losing.

This is one issue that the BJP would have to overcome as the Panchamshalis, which a peasant sub-sect has been agitating and demanding reservation under the 2A category. The BJP government led by Basavaraj Bommai has tried to underplay the agitation, while some attempts were made to create a rift among the pontiffs. Moreover the the State Government's decision to pacify both the Vokkaligas and Lingayats by hiking the reservation quota has not gone as per plan. The Karnataka High Court had ordered a status quo which prevented the government from going ahead with more reservation.

The BJP's other problem is that the Kuruba community, the single larges Other Backward Class (OBC) community has been demanding the ST tag. Not just them Reddys and Kshatriyas too have been demanding the same tag.

While the BJP is heavily dependant on the Lingayat votes and the JD(S) on Vokkaliga votes, the Congress is the only party which gets pan-Karnataka votes. The Congress may have weakened in most parts of India, but Karnataka still is a stronghold for the party. However it is not as though the sailing will be smooth for the party, this time.

Although former chief minister, Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president, Siddaramaiah present a united front, things are not exactly smooth sailing between the two. Both of them are in a race to bag the CM's seat and this no longer a secret.

In 2013 elections, when then KPCC president, Dr. G Parameshwar was defeated, word spread that Siddaramaiah had engineered the same. Had Parameshwar won, he would have become the CM. Word is that the Dalits want to take revenge for the defeat of Paramewhar are he hails from the same community. It would be interesting to see how this would play out.

The JD(S) is aware that it cannot win a majority, but can spoil the party. The BJP is focusing heavily on the Old-Mysuru Region, which is dominated by the Vokkaligas. But the JD(S) is aware that it will perform well here. It may end up with anything between 30-40 seats and that is sufficient to deny the larger parties of a clear majority.