In EC’s decision to defer Karnataka by-polls, BJP can thank its stars

New Delhi, Sep 27: The submission by the Election Commission in the Supreme Court that it would defer the by-elections in Karnataka has come as a relief for the BJP. The court which is hearing the petitions by the disqualified MLAs challenging the Speaker's decision disqualifying them adjourned hearing to October 22 2019 following the submission made by the EC.

The polls were originally scheduled for October 21. The decision by the EC to defer the polls comes as a relief for the BJP as it would give the party breathing time. It was caught in a bind over the distribution of tickets. Several leaders within the party had sought tickets, but the party was also under immense pressure from the rebels. It was the resignation of these rebels that helped the BJP form the government.

For the BJP the best chance would be in fielding the rebels in the constituencies where by-polls are to be held. These are strongholds of the Congress and JD(S) and political experts say that the BJP's chances were not exactly bright.

Ahead of the hearing in the Supreme Court, the BJP found itself in a spot of bother. It was yet to decide on its next move had the SC not granted relief to the rebels. In this case it would have had to go with its own candidates, who would have found the Congress and JD(S) challenge tough.

At one point the BJP even decided to field strong candidates, but decided to put the decision on hold. Had party fielded the candidates and then the SC granted relief to the rebels, then it would have been hard to get its candidates to withdraw.

A lot was at stake in these by-elections for the BJP in particular. The Speaker had disqualified 17 MLAs- 13 from the Congress, 3 from JD(S) and one independent. The BJP was able to form the government in a reduced house strength with its 104 MLAs and the support of one independent MLA.

After the by-polls are conducted, the magic number in the house would be 111 and the BJP would have had to win 6 out of the 15 seats that are going to polls. The BJP would have to take a lot into consideration and the first one on the list is that these constituencies are the strongholds of the JD(S) and Congress. Secondly, if it decided to field the rebel lawmakers in the event of relief from the SC, then the resentment factor on the ground would also be a major factor.

All in all, the decision by the EC to defer the polls has come as a major relief for the BJP. It now will have some breathing time before it can plan its next move.