July's Heavy Rainfall Compensates for India's Monsoon Shortfall

Heavy rainfall has balanced the June deficit, pushing overall monsoon precipitation into surplus. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts more heavy rain in northwest and western peninsular India over the next few days, and in the northeast for the next five days.

Impact on Agriculture

India, a leading producer of rice, wheat, and sugarcane, faced an 11% rainfall deficit in June, with northwest India experiencing a 33% shortfall. However, heavy rain in early July compensated for this deficit but led to flooding in several northeastern states.

Since the monsoon season began on June 1, India has received 214.9 mm of rainfall compared to the normal 213.3 mm. Northwest India and the southern peninsula recorded 3% and 13% above-normal rainfall, respectively. The east and northeast regions saw their deficit drop from 13% on June 30 to zero by July 6.

Regional Rainfall Variations

The IMD data indicates that 23% of India's sub-divisional areas experienced excess rainfall, while 67% received normal rainfall. Only 10% of the areas had deficient rainfall. Central India's deficit decreased from 14% to 6% during this period.

The monsoon made an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30 but lost momentum after reaching Maharashtra. This delay affected West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, worsening a heatwave in northwest India.

Flooding Concerns

Assam's flood situation remains dire, with over 2.45 million people affected and 52 lives lost in the second wave of flooding this year. Heavy rains in Manipur, Mizoram, and Arunachal Pradesh have caused rivers to reach warning levels and triggered landslides.

The IMD forecasts continued heavy rainfall in northeast India over the next five days. Experts from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) warn of a challenging monsoon season for countries in the Hindukush Himalayan region, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Historical Rainfall Patterns

IMD data shows that in 20 out of the last 25 years when June rainfall was below normal (less than 92% of the long-period average), July rainfall was either normal (94-106% of LPA) or above normal. In 17 of those years, seasonal rainfall was also normal or above normal.

The annual rain-bearing system covered most of northwest India after June 25. Monsoonal winds stalled from June 10 to June 18 and progressed slowly until June 26-27.

The IMD earlier this week predicted above-normal rainfall for July. Heavy rain may cause floods in hilly states and river basins in central parts of the country.

The weather department noted that heavy rain would continue in northeast India over the next five days. The northeastern states are already dealing with severe floods.

This year's monsoon season has been marked by significant variations in rainfall across different regions of India. While some areas have experienced excess rainfall leading to floods, others have seen deficits impacting agriculture and daily life.