MASLD global prevalence reaches 1.3 billion in 2023; study projects 1.8 billion cases by 2050

A study in The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology estimates 1.3 billion people lived with MASLD in 2023, a 143% rise since 1990. Using GBD 2023 data, researchers project 1.8 billion cases by 2050, linked to population growth, obesity, and high blood sugar, with higher rates in North Africa and the Middle East.

A new estimate in The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology reported a sharp rise in Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) worldwide. The study said about 1.3 billion people lived with MASLD in 2023. Researchers also linked the increase to obesity, high blood sugar, and changing lifestyles in many countries.

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, the authors projected further growth. The analysis estimated global MASLD cases could reach about 1.8 billion by 2050. The study said population growth and lifestyle shifts were expected to be major drivers behind this rise.

MASLD global burden and key 2023 estimates

The paper described MASLD as common in 2023, affecting an estimated 16.1 per cent of the global population. It also reported an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14,429.3 per 1,00,000 population. The authors noted both the overall count and the rate increased compared with 1990.

"In 2023, approximately 1.3 billion individuals were estimated to be living with MASLD ie, 16.1 per cent of the global population, with an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14,429.3 per 1,00,000 population, representing a percentage increase of 142.7 per cent in crude numbers from 1990 and of 28.6 per cent in the rate 11,217.2 per 1,00,000 in 1990, the authors wrote.\"

MASLD regional trends and health impact

Researchers from the GBD 2023 MASLD Collaborators reported uneven patterns across regions. North Africa and the Middle East recorded higher MASLD rates than other parts of the world. Despite the rise in people affected, the overall health impact stayed stable, measured as years lost due to illness or death.

The team said this stability may reflect better treatment and care in recent years. The researchers added that much of the case growth appears to be in earlier disease stages. Still, the rising total means more people could later face serious outcomes such as liver cirrhosis or cancer.

MASLD in younger adults and policy response

The findings also pointed to a shift towards younger adults, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The study linked this trend to urbanisation and lifestyle changes. The researchers said MASLD should be treated as a global health priority through policies, awareness campaigns, and targeted interventions.

While improved care may be limiting the overall harm today, the study warned that case numbers keep climbing. With an expected rise to about 1.8 billion cases by 2050, the researchers said prevention will matter. They highlighted the need to reduce future complications by addressing obesity, high blood sugar, and other lifestyle risks.

With inputs from PTI