Exit Poll 2024 For Jammu And Kashmir: No Clear Winner, JKNC-Congress Alliance Emerges As Front Runner

No political party is expected to attain the crucial halfway mark of 46 seats in the Jammu & Kashmir assembly elections 2024. However, an exit poll suggests that the alliance between the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Congress is expected to emerge as the leading coalition.

These elections, which were the first to occur following the abrogation of Article 370, took place in three phases from September 18 to October 1, with a total of 90 seats at stake.

According to a survey conducted by Hyderabad's People's Pulse, the electorate appears to favor the National Conference-Congress alliance, with a notable percentage of respondents indicating their support.

Approximately 46% of those polled in Jammu and Kashmir expressed a belief that the INC-JKNC alliance would be best positioned to fulfill their needs. The post-election data suggests that this coalition is likely to garner around 43% of the overall vote share, with the JKNC contributing about 29% and the Congress about 14%.

On the other hand, the BJP is expected to benefit from a consolidated Hindu vote in Jammu, projecting an estimated vote share of around 24%. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is anticipated to secure about 16%, while smaller parties, including the Awami Ittihaad Party, People's Conference, and Apni Party, are projected to account for the remaining 17%.

Projected Seat Distribution

The post-election projections indicate that no individual party will achieve the majority threshold of 46 seats, signaling the likelihood of a coalition government once more in Jammu and Kashmir.

Nevertheless, the JKNC-INC alliance seems to possess an advantage, with the potential to secure between 46 and 50 seats. Of this total, the JKNC is predicted to contribute between 33 and 35 seats, while the Congress may capture 13 to 15 seats.

Meanwhile, the BJP, riding on its robust performance in Jammu and hindered by the Congress's inadequate campaigning, is projected to secure between 23 and 27 seats-less than their anticipated outcome following extensive investments in the region.

The PDP is also expected to maintain a meaningful presence, with projections suggesting it could win between seven and 11 seats. The much-discussed Awami Ittihaad Party may secure one seat, while smaller parties like the People's Conference and Apni Party might collectively obtain around four to five seats.