El Nino to return with natural miseries

El Nino, which is an extremely large-scale weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, can disrupt worldwide weather, affect marine life and lead to extreme heat, floods and droughts in India.

After a three-year hiatus, El Nino is making a comeback some time in the second half of this year and weather forecast agencies and scientists around the world are abuzz with predictions that this could mean that the global temperatures will rise like never before. They are warning that the world should gear up to face unprecedented heat waves. The scientists have predicted that the world temperature will be 'off the charts' and exceed 1.5 degree Centigrade by next year. Notably, 2016, the hottest year in recorded history, was also driven by a major El Nino.

Last year was the fifth hottest on record, but with the return of El Nino, 2023 could prove to be even hotter. This year is already forecast to be hotter than 2022, but with El Nino occurring in the second half of 2023 means 2024 is much more likely to set a new global temperature record.

Climate change has already been playing havoc around the world and from the extreme heat conditions in the US and Europe to the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, but with El Nino knocking mid-2023, what should the world prepare for and what does it mean for India?

Here is an explanation on El Nino and everything everyone should know about it.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is a natural phenomenon due to which there is unusual warming of surface waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Trade winds and atmosphere are also hugely impacted by El Nino, which is a Spanish word that basically means 'the child', and has been named so as this warm current starts to flow around Christmas and hence the name refers to baby Christ. The phenomenon was first observed by South American fishermen in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s.

In an El Nino scenario, strong trade winds which are warm blow westward across the Pacific Ocean. Due to the movement of the westward warm winds, warmer water moves from South America towards Asia and cooler water rises up cooler water which is nutrient-rich rises up from the depths - a process called 'upwelling'.

During El Nino, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep and due to warmer water, marine life is badly impacted. El Nino, which is basically extremely large-scale weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean, can disrupt worldwide weather besides affecting marine life to a considerable extent.

Opposite of El Nino is called La Nina. During La Nina events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

Scientists call these phenomena the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. El Nino and La Nina can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. Episodes of El Nino and La Nina typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years. El Nino and La Nina events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don't occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Nino occurs more frequently than La Nina.

How will El Nino impact India?

While El Nino causes high temperatures in one part of the world, it often brings torrential rains in the north of the mountainous Latin American nation, with a high risk of mudslides. El Nino also can cause extended droughts in other parts of South America, Indonesia, Australia, and Africa.

Meanwhile, when it comes to India, El Nino can have a dangerous effect on the monsoon. It can change the monsoon patterns across the Indian subcontinent and can lead to drought situations.

According to a report, ENSO forecasts of December 2013 and December 2017 were akin to December 2022. Both these years witnessed sub-par southwest monsoon rainfall leading to moderate drought in 2014 and near drought in 2018. Earlier, similar patterns in 2003 and 2008 also proved cataclysmic, defacing Indian monsoon 2004 and 2009, both drought years.