Donald Trump Wins US President Polls: Is It Good Or Bad For India? Find Out How It Will Impact Ties

In the early hours of Wednesday, Donald Trump delivered a speech to his supporters at the Palm Beach Convention Centre in Florida, where he promised an era of unparalleled prosperity for America. Surrounded by his family and Vice President-elect J D Vance, alongside Vance's Indian American wife, Usha, Trump expressed his vision of a "golden age" for the country.

He hailed his electoral victory as a monumental achievement that would rejuvenate the American spirit and help the nation to heal and prosper. Trump's remarks underscored his belief in the historical significance of his movement, which he described as unparalleled in both American history and potentially beyond.

Fox News, leading the charge among major American media outlets, announced Trump's triumph, followed swiftly by other networks. This came shortly after Trump secured the battleground state of Pennsylvania, tipping the electoral vote balance firmly in his favor. With 267 electoral votes already called for him against Kamala Harris's 224, Trump was on the brink of clinching the presidency, needing just three more votes to confirm his victory.

This win was not just a testament to Trump's electoral strategy but also marked a significant moment in American politics, signalling a shift towards what Trump envisages as a revival of American greatness.

What does it mean to India-US Ties?

Strengthening India-US Relations

Trump's rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been notably warm, marked by mutual admiration and high-profile interactions such as "Howdy, Modi!" and "Namaste Trump" events. Despite occasional critiques of India's trade practices, Trump has consistently expressed a deep appreciation for India and its leadership. This dynamic between the two leaders suggests a continuation of strong bilateral ties, particularly in areas like trade, military cooperation, and strategic partnerships aimed at countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, under Biden, the relationship between the world's two most populous democracies has come under increasing strain, leading to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent meeting with Xi. The meeting, coinciding with an India-China agreement on border patrolling to ease their military standoff, has signaled a thaw in the icy hostility marking relations between the Asian giants.

He wrote, "Tensions with New Delhi have arisen over a series of issues, starting with Biden's surrender of Afghanistan to a Pakistan-reared terrorist militia. Tensions grew with India's neutral stance on the Ukraine war. In an ungainly attempt to bully New Delhi into submission, the White House in 2022 threatened that "the costs and consequences" for India would be "significant and long-term" if it refused to take sides in Ukraine.

The Biden administration's hectoring tone has struck a raw nerve in India, including when it recently demanded that it "won't be fully satisfied until there is meaningful accountability" from New Delhi over what the U.S. alleges was a failed 2023 plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a New York-based Sikh separatist who is on India's most wanted list. But the U.S. has taken no action against Pannun for making terrorist threats against India, including warning passengers not to fly Air India between Nov. 1 and 19 - a notice that has coincided with a spate of hoax bomb threats against Indian carriers that have disrupted air travel."

With Trump and Modi sharing a good equation, the ties between India and the US are expected to come back on track. In fact, the President-elect has announced recently that the US will strengthen its ties with India and Modi.

Trade Dynamics and Economic Challenges

The re-election of Trump poses both challenges and opportunities for India-US trade relations. Trump's "America First" policy could lead to tensions as both nations prioritize their economic interests, especially if Trump revisits his stance on imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries he perceives as unfairly taxing US products. This could impact Indian exports in key sectors such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. However, Trump's commitment to countering China offers India a unique opportunity to attract American investment and position itself as a manufacturing alternative to China, thereby enhancing its economic and strategic ties with the US.

Impact on Immigration and Workforce

Trump's stringent immigration policies may pose significant hurdles for Indian professionals aiming to work in the US. Previous attempts to increase the wage requirements for H-1B visa holders and impose more rigid regulations could, if reintroduced, restrict the flow of skilled Indian workers to the US. Such measures would not only affect individuals but could also pose challenges for industries reliant on this talent pool.

Defence and Strategic Alliances

Defence cooperation stands as a cornerstone of the India-US relationship, with both countries engaging in significant initiatives like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and various defense deals, including the GE-HAL agreement for jet engine manufacturing. While Trump's cautious stance on multilateral military pacts may persist, the strategic imperative to counter China's regional ambitions is likely to keep India-US military collaboration on a positive trajectory. The strengthening of the Quad alliance under Trump's first term and potential for further deepening of defense ties, including arms sales and joint military exercises, underscores the robust strategic partnership between India and the US.

In conclusion, Trump's vision for a "golden age" in America, coupled with his policies and international relations, promises a complex but potentially rewarding future for India-US ties. While challenges in trade and immigration policy loom, the strategic and defense cooperation between the two nations remains a strong foundation for mutual growth and stability in the face of global uncertainties.