Did the rise of Tipra Motha, pull down BJP’s tribal vote tally in Tripura

The BJP had ended the rule of the Left in Tripura. The CPM had ruled the state for 25 years

The Tripura results are close to call as of now. It appeared to be a done deal for the BJP, but the Left Alliance with 19 seats is battling hard against the BJP which is leading in 29, two short of the majority mark.

While the BJP and Left Alliance are in a close battle, it is the Tipra Motha Party which is making waves. The Tipra Motha is leading in 11 seats and has made significant gains in the tribal belt of the state. Early trends show that the Tipra may have eaten into the vote share of the BJP in these belts.

In 2018, the BJP registered an astounding win, throwing the 25 year old Left government in Tripura.

If one looks at the campaign of the BJP in 2018, it adopted a multi-pronged strategy, of which an important part was securing the tribal votes.

In Tripura, one-third of the population is tribal. There are 20 seats for Scheduled Tribes. Focusing on these seats ensured that the BJP alliance ended up with 44 of the 60 seats.

Following its dismal performance in 2013, the BJP in 2018 allied with the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), which was strong among the tribal communities who were agitating for a separate state.

The BJP also promised the tribals land rights, employment and measures to preserve tribal culture.

The effort paid off for the BJP, with the party winning 10 of the ST reserved seats.

This time the calculation has been different with the Tipra Motha Party contesting the elections. The main poll issue for the part was the Greater Tipraland state. The entry of Tipra may have changed the game for the BJP. Further, during the previous elections, the promise made by the IPFT for a Greater Tipraland was diluted after the elections.

Another writing on the wall was when the IPFT-BJP and other parties lost the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council Elections in March 2021 to the Tipra Motha. This was seen as a major shift in the loyalty of tribal from the BJP-IPFT alliance.