Did Ram Rahim Factor Help BJP Win Haryana Elections 2024?

The parole of Gurmeet Ram Rahim, the Dera Sacha Sauda chief, for the 15th time stirred controversy, as the BJP was criticized for allegedly seeking his support right before the Haryana assembly polls. This move drew fire especially since it occurred merely four days to the election, raising eyebrows and accusations from quarters. The opposition Congress and other parties pointed fingers at the ruling BJP, suggesting that the parole was a strategic move to gain electoral advantage. Nonetheless, the election outcomes revealed a twist, with both the Congress and the BJP securing benefits from the parole decision.

The influence of Dera Sacha Sauda and its chief, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, extends beyond their immediate religious domain into the realm of politics, where they hold considerable sway. Despite being a spiritual sect, Dera Sacha Sauda has a political wing led by Ram Rahim himself. Over the years, this group has aligned with various political entities including the Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP, and Congress, depending on the electoral context. For instance, in the 2007 Punjab Assembly elections, the sect supported the Congress, while in both the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, it threw its weight behind the BJP. This pattern continued in the 2015 Delhi and Bihar elections, where Dera's backing was evident with around 3,000 followers campaigning for the BJP in Bihar.

In the recent assembly elections, the distribution of wins across parties in areas with a high concentration of Dera followers was notable. The Congress led the tally by securing 15 out of 28 assembly segments within six districts of Haryana known for their Dera follower base. These districts included Fatehabad, Kaithal, Kurukshetra, Sirsa, Karnal, and Hisar. In contrast, the BJP managed to win in 10 segments, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and an Independent candidate secured victories in two and one segments, respectively. This electoral distribution signals the complex political dynamics and the Dera's potential influence over its followers' voting preferences.

Amidst the parole controversy, reports emerged suggesting that on October 3, Ram Rahim instructed his followers to support the BJP. This guidance reportedly came during a Satsang in Sirsa, where devotees were urged to bring at least five voters each to the polling stations. However, it remained uncertain whether Ram Rahim hosted this gathering virtually or not, especially since the Election Commission of India had prohibited him from canvassing or conducting online Satsangs.

The Dera Sacha Sauda's political leverage is not only a testament to its religious influence but also to its socio-political clout among the lower castes, including a significant number of Dalits. Political analysts underline that while upper-caste votes in Haryana often split between the Congress and the BJP, the lower-caste electorate, particularly those following Dera, tend to adhere to the voting instructions from their leader. This pattern underscores the sect's ability to mobilize its base in line with its political affiliations, further entwining the realms of religion and politics within the state.

In conclusion, the parole of Gurmeet Ram Rahim and its timing sparked a political furore, highlighting the intricate connections between religious sects like Dera Sacha Sauda and the political landscape in Haryana. Despite the controversy, the election results demonstrated the multi-faceted influence of Dera, benefitting not just the BJP but also the Congress significantly. As both parties navigated the complex political terrain, the Dera Sacha Sauda's endorsement once again proved to be a pivotal factor in shaping the electoral dynamics of Haryana.