Decoding The Siddaramaiah Vs D K Shivakumar Battle

The Congress would announce who would be the next Chief Minister of Karnataka, but it would not be without drama.

The drama is already playing out in Bengaluru and Delhi and the party says that the secret-ballot of the legislatures is the factor that they are considering.

The race would be an interesting one and OneIndia caught up with leading psephologist, Dr. Sandeep Shastri to learn more on how things could unfold.

There would be three things that the Congress would bear in mind in this case. The Rajasthan scenario, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and their performances in further elections, he says.

On the face of it, I don't think there is a chance for anyone other than Siddaramaiah given the support he enjoys within the party. The fact that he has been a chief minister in the past also gives him the edge, says Dr. Shastri.

"Having said that the role that D K Shivakumar has played in the Congress victory cannot also be sidelined by the high command. While Siddaramaiah will be favoured for the role he played in the wider social coalition, Shivakumar too cannot be sidelined," he adds.

Can one compare this scenario with the one in Rajasthan? Dr. Shastri says that Shivakumar is no Sachin Pilot. He has a lot of experience and has helped the party on many occasions. Be it Gujarat, Jharkhand or Maharashtra, the party has reached out to him every time it faced an internal challenge. He has been a conflict manager for the party on many occasions, he added.

Will Shivakumar just step aside and let Siddaramaiah take the top post? To this Sandeep Shastri says that even if he accepts the post of deputy chief minister, he will want to be the only one. He would demand key portfolios for his supporters. If he decides to stay away from the ministry then he would want to remain the KPCC president.

Further the Congress would also look to sort out this issue amicably. Mallikarjun Kharge would not want a major challenge in his home state. He would look for a compromise so that all sides have takeaways.

If one looks at the statements made by Shivakumar, it is clear that he is flexing his muscles. In every statement, he makes it a point to show how close he is to the Gandhis. However there is a huge challenge for Shivakumar owing to the number of cases he is facing, says Dr. Shastri. "Remember when Siddaramaiah had become the chief minister in 2013, he had not included Shivakumar in the council of ministers.The high command later had to relent and add him. Shivakumar is however known to be patient and I do not see him rebelling against the party. If he does not want to be part of any ministry then I see him doing party work," Dr. Shastri added.