Surprising Decline In Voter Turnout Observed In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

An analysis of data from the first five phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reveals some surprising trends. Comparing voting figures from 409 constituencies with those from 2019 shows a notable decline in voter turnout.

In about two-thirds, or 258, of these constituencies, the voter turnout percentage has fallen. This trend is more severe in the fifth phase of the elections.

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In 88 constituencies, not only has the percentage of voters decreased, but fewer people have actually voted compared to 2019. These figures are based on votes cast through EVMs and do not include ballot paper votes.

Turnout percentages are based on the number of voters who cast ballots compared to the total number of registered voters in a constituency. The number of registered voters may have increased since 2019, affecting the turnout percentage.

When we talk about absolute votes or total number of voters who cast ballots, we compare the number of voters with the number of votes cast in the previous election for the same constituency.

Kerala leads in both decreased turnout percentages and fewer votes cast compared to 2019. In all 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, the turnout percentage has fallen. In more than half of these seats (12), the total number of votes cast has also fallen.

In Tamil Nadu, the turnout percentage has fallen in 34 out of 39 Lok Sabha seats. In 18 seats, fewer votes have been cast than in the previous election. The BJP did not win any seats in these two states last time. In contrast, out of the 52 seats won by Congress, 23 were from these states.

In Uttar Pradesh, out of 53 constituencies for which data is available, 40 have seen a drop in voting percentage. However, only 17 constituencies have fewer votes than in 2019.

In Rajasthan, where BJP won the assembly elections in November 2023, the voting percentage has decreased in 22 out of 25 seats. In 12 of these seats, fewer votes have been cast than last time.

In BJP-ruled Uttarakhand, which has five Lok Sabha seats, the voting percentage has fallen in all constituencies. Three of these seats have seen fewer votes cast than in the previous election.

The number of votes cast has decreased in nine out of 29 constituencies in Madhya Pradesh (23 with decreased turnout percentage). Similarly, fewer votes have been cast in six out of 25 constituencies in Gujarat (24 with decreased turnout percentage), six out of 48 in Maharashtra (20 with decreased turnout percentage), and one out of 24 in Bihar (21 with decreased turnout percentage).

In contrast, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Odisha, Telangana, West Bengal, and Chhattisgarh have seen an increase in the number of votes cast compared to 2019. However, except for Chhattisgarh, some constituencies in these states have seen a fall in turnout percentage.