'Cooler' February likely in India, says IMD

New Delhi, Feb 01: India is all set to experience below normal temperature over most parts of the country in February, while Punjab and Haryana are expected to get above normal rainfall, the weather office said on Monday.

According to the monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature for February, the India Meteorological Department said the forecast suggests that normal to below normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of North India except most parts of Punjab and Haryana where above normal rainfall was expected.

"During the month of February 2022, below normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of the country except eastern parts of northeast India, south peninsular India and southeastern parts central India, where normal to above normal minimum temperatures are likely," it said. "Below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except along the eastern and southwestern coastal areas of peninsular India where it is likely to be normal to above normal," the outlook for February said.

It said currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The La Nina weather phenomenon is associated with harsh winter conditions.

The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) forecast indicates that these La Nina conditions are likely to weaken starting from the northern hemisphere spring season and to reach cold ENSO neutral conditions during the second quarter of 2022. It said IMD has adopted a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal outlooks of rainfall and temperature over the country.

The new strategy is based on the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model.