Study: Climate Crisis Made South Asia's April Heatwave 45 Times More Likely

In a striking testament to the escalating challenges posed by climate change, Annu Mishra, a 51-year-old food stall owner in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, was compelled to close her business for 17 consecutive days in April due to unbearable temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. This period marks the longest stretch of such extreme heat in the city since 1969, underscoring the severe impact on both health and livelihoods. Mishra, who previously only shut down during Cyclone Fani in 2019, highlighted the difficulty of working near a gas stove under such conditions.

According to leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, such severe heatwaves have become approximately 45 times more likely due to climate change. They now predict these events could occur once every 30 years. The scientists pointed out that these intensified heat conditions are particularly harsh for those living in poverty across Asia. Amid a slightly weakening El Niño and rising levels of greenhouse gases, South Asia faced brutal heat in April, with record-breaking temperatures prompting health warnings and adjustments in school operations across parts of India.

Not limited to India, this phenomenon has also shattered temperature records in countries like the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. West Asia has experienced an increase in April heatwaves with temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius, attributed to climate change. With global average temperatures up by 1.2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, similar heatwaves are expected to occur once every 10 years in West Asia. A further increase to 2 degrees Celsius warming could see such events happening once every five years.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, especially to the elderly and children who are vulnerable to heat exhaustion and heatstroke. The World Health Organization reports that between 1998 and 2017, over 166,000 people died due to heatwaves. Beyond health implications, extreme temperatures impact economic productivity and learning environments for children.

In Bhubaneswar alone, Mishra faced a financial loss of Rs 20,000 during the heatwave spell—the longest since April 2016. Restrictions on street vendors' operating hours led to widespread economic difficulties among local sellers. Mishra also noted instances of heatstroke among her peers in the street hawkers association.

Experts emphasize the need for targeted support for populations most at risk from extreme heat, particularly those aged above 65 and below 15. Vishwas Chitale, senior program lead at the Council for Energy Environment and Water, advocates for swift identification of vulnerable groups within Indian cities and the formulation of comprehensive heat action plans.

While some countries like India have implemented extensive heat action plans, the WWA suggests that protecting vulnerable communities requires expanded mandatory regulations. These should include workplace interventions to mitigate heat stress for all workers, ensuring broader protection against the escalating threat of climate-induced temperature extremes.