Can SP's Surprise Win In UP Be A Harbinger Of Change Despite Ram Temple Hype?

The road to Delhi may pass through Lucknow, and the 2024 general elections have once again proved this. The opposition INDIA bloc is leading in 33 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP is ahead in 31 seats in Uttar Pradesh, as per the EC data at 10 pm.

The highlight of the elections was the resurgence of Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP), which has emerged as a strong contender. The party's crowning achievement was the victory of its candidate Awadesh Prasad over saffron stalwart Lallu Singh in Ayodhya, Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency.

The outcome of this election is significant, as it marks a reversal of fortunes for the BJP, which had been expected to sweep the polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the SP had won only 5 seats in UP, while the BJP had bagged 62 seats. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had won 72 seats in the state.

According to Lucknow-based analyst Anshuman Shukla, "The writing was on the wall. It's just that everyone was blinded and missed it." Shukla notes that the BJP's decline in popularity is evident in its reduced numbers in the state assembly, from 312 seats in 2017 to 255 in 2022.

The party's loss is attributed to its poor performance in rural areas, where voters were sensitive to issues related to the Constitution and Bhim Rao Ambedkar, architect of the Indian Constitution. This has led to a shift in loyalties towards Akhilesh Yadav and the SP.

Akhilesh Yadav's strategy to retain his core Muslim-Yadav voter base and make inroads into non-Yadav OBCs has paid off. The party's vote share increased when it joined hands with smaller parties, who drew support from non-Yadav OBCs. By accommodating candidates from other communities, the SP was able to reach out to voters of other OBC groups and upper castes.

The party's slogan, "Pichde (backward classes or OBCs), Dalits, Alpasankhyak (minorities) (PDA)", proved to be a winning combination. The ticket distribution also told a story, with five SP tickets going to Yadavs, 27 candidates from other OBCs, 11 upper castes, and four Muslims nominated. The party also fielded 15 Dalit candidates in SC-reserved seats.