Bihar's Exit Polls Vs Actual Results: Whose Survey Predicted It Right?

Updated: Friday, November 14, 2025, 14:21 [IST]

The BJP-led NDA is heading for an earth-shattering victory in the Bihar Assembly elections in 2025.

As per the trend, the ruling party is leading in 200 seats with the Mahagathbandhan racing ahead in 27, while others in six seats at 2 pm.

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In the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA is leading with approximately 200 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is racing with 27 seats, as indicated in the trends, proving several exit polls inaccurate. According to Poll Diary, NDA was predicted to get 184-209 seats and the BJP's Amit Shah had expected the alliance to win 160 seats.

The NDA's victory was predicted by at least 10-11 pollsters, but the majority of the exit polls had missed what was coming its way.

Bihar s Exit Polls Vs Actual Results Whose Survey Predicted It Right

The manner in which the ruling party has emerged victorious has once again proven the exit polls wrong, as only one pollster predicted it right.

Only Poll Diary predicted it right. As per the pollster, the NDA was predicted to get 184-209 seats with the MGB winning 32-49 while others were expected to get 1-5 seats.

Most of the pollsters had predicted in a range of 135-150 seats. In fact, the NDA is getting more seats than the BJP's Chanakya Amit Shah had predicted.

Pollster	NDA	MGB	JSP / Others
Axis My India	121-141	98-118	0-2
IANS-Matrize	147-167	70-90	0-2
People's Insight	133-148	87-102	0-2
Chanakya Strategies	130-138	100-108	0
People's Pulse	133-159	75-101	0-5
JVC Polls	135-150	88-103	0-1
Dainik Bhaskar	145-160	73-91	5-10
P-Marq	142-162	80-98	1-4
TIF Research	145-163	76-95	0
DV Research	137-152	83-98	2-4
Poll Diary (NEW)	184-209	32-49	1-5

He had expected the alliance to win 160 seats. Speaking in an interview, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said, "We will win more than 160 seats and form a government in Bihar," He further added, "Nitish Kumar is the CM here and Narendra Modi is the PM there. The CM's seat is not vacant, and neither is the PM's."

It also means that the RJD's total tally, as per the latest trends, has come down to 29 while the Congress is reduced to 4.