Bihar Politics: How Numbers Stack Up In 243-Member Assembly?

With reports suggesting a potential turnaround by Nitish Kumar, the Bihar Assembly finds itself once again in the throes of a numbers game. If Nitish Kumar's JD(U) decides to part ways with the Mahagathbandhan partner Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and align with the BJP, forming a government won't pose a challenge for Kumar's party.

The current numerical landscape in the 243-member Bihar Assembly favors a coalition between JDU and BJP for the formation of a new government. This development deals a fresh blow to the Congress-INDIA alliance, marking the third instance where JDU is expected to forge ties with the BJP, breaking away from the RJD.

The escalating tension between JDU and RJD over the past few weeks reached a tipping point on Thursday when Lalu Prasad's daughter, Rohini Acharya, made a scathing remark about Nitish Kumar following his criticism of dynastic politics. Subsequently, Rohini deleted the posts.

The crucial figure needed to form a government in the Bihar Assembly is 122. If Nitish Kumar's JDU aligns with the BJP, the two parties together hold enough seats to easily form the government. JDU has 45 assembly seats, while BJP secured 78 seats in the Bihar Assembly election in 2020.

In the lead-up to the significant political developments in Bihar, JDU, RJD, and BJP leaders engaged in intense discussions in Delhi and Patna. BJP summoned its state leadership to Delhi, where Bihar state BJP President Samrat Chaudhary, Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Modi, Leader of Opposition (LoP) Vijay Kumar Sinha, and other senior leaders held discussions with Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday.

In the Bihar assembly elections of 2020, RJD emerged as the single largest party, with BJP coming in second and JDU in the third position. Congress won 19 seats, HAM 4, and AIMIM 1. RJD secured 79 seats, BJP 78, and JDU 45. Later, JDU and RJD formed the government through a coalition.