Bihar Opinion Poll: Can Nitish Kumar & BJP Defeat 'Mahagathbandhan' If Elections Are Held Today?

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will continue to be a dominant player if the Lok Sabha elections are held today, as per the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) opinion poll.

What Bihar Election Survey Says?

Ths survey claims that the NDA will bag 33-35 seats out of 40 Lok Sabha seats. The interesting part of the story is that there is a five per cent rise in its vote share from 47% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to 52% at present. More importantly, the 'mahagathbandhan' is predicted to lose a three per cent vote share from 39% in 2024 to 42% currently.

The survey, conducted from January 2 to February 9, 2025, covered 125,123 individuals across all Lok Sabha segments and combined fresh interviews with long-term tracking data.

Success Lies In Unity

CVoter founder-director Yashwant Deshmukh pointed out that the strong arithmetic is in favour of the BJP and if the NDA partners are together, they are unlikely to be defeated.

"Bihar is one state where voting patterns are purely arithmetic-driven. There is no Delhi-like split voting in Bihar. If the BJP, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United (JDU), and Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) remain united, it will be extremely difficult for the 'mahagathbandhan' to pose a significant challenge," India Today quoted Deshmukh as saying.

The BJP has already announced that the NDA will go to Bihar Assembly polls under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, who took oath as the chief minister of Bihar for a record ninth time in 2024.

However, Nitish is expected to have tough days ahead. "Nitish Kumar is down and out in the upcoming polls. Over the last seven to eight years, his only political manoeuvre has been to stall a BJP government in Bihar. This time, he is down and dusted. The BJP is coming to power in Bihar. There is no doubt about the Mood of the Nation survey. Whether it's Congress or the RJD, they don't even understand the dynamics of rural Bihar," Priyam stated.