Bihar Exit Poll 2025: Journo Mirror Predicts Mahagathbandhan's Victory, Contradicting Other Surveys

In a surprising projection that defies most other exit polls, Journo Mirror's latest exit poll has forecast a clear edge for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, suggesting a dramatic political shift in the state. According to the survey, the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure between 130 and 140 seats, positioning it well above the halfway mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly.

The poll places the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) far behind, predicting it to win 100 to 110 seats-a significant drop compared to the 2020 election results, when the NDA managed to form the government under Nitish Kumar's leadership. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is projected to secure 3 to 4 seats, while other smaller parties may bag 0 to 3 seats.

A Contradictory Trend

Journo Mirror's findings stand in stark contrast to most other exit polls released this week, which have largely indicated a comfortable victory for the NDA. Polls conducted by agencies such as TIF Research, Chanakya Strategies, and People's Insight predicted that the NDA could cross the majority mark, with seat projections ranging between 130 and 160 for the ruling alliance.

However, Journo Mirror's data points to a resurgent Mahagathbandhan, suggesting that anti-incumbency sentiments, unemployment, and agrarian distress may have influenced voters. Analysts also believe that Tejashwi Yadav's youth-centric campaign, focusing on job creation and social welfare, may have resonated strongly, especially among the younger electorate.

Regional Dynamics and Key Factors

According to early trends observed during voting, the Mahagathbandhan seems to have performed strongly in the Seemanchal, Mithilanchal, and Magadh regions, while the NDA retained its influence in north Bihar and urban Patna. The inclusion of smaller caste-based parties in both alliances added further complexity to voter dynamics this time.

Awaiting Results with Caution

While the Journo Mirror exit poll paints a strikingly different picture, political observers have urged caution. Exit polls in Bihar have a history of inaccuracies, and final results have often diverged from pre-count projections.

With counting set to take place in a few days, both alliances are maintaining a cautious optimism. If Journo Mirror's predictions hold true, Bihar could witness a major political turnaround, potentially marking the return of Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan to power after five years in opposition.