Bihar Election Pre-Poll Survey: NDA to Win 120–140 Seats, MGB Trails by Narrow Margin, Says JVC Opinion Poll

By Oneindia Staff

Updated: Tuesday, November 4, 2025, 14:27 [IST]

The Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar appears poised to maintain its grip on power in the upcoming Assembly elections, according to a new JVC pre-poll survey. The opinion poll predicts that the NDA could win between 120 and 140 seats in the 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) may secure 93 to 112 seats.

Bihar Election Pre-Poll Survey NDA to Win 120 140 Seats MGB Trails by Narrow Margin Says JVC Opinion Poll

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A JVC pre-poll survey projects the NDA, led by Janata Dal (United), to win 120-140 seats in Bihar's 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan may secure 93-112 seats; Tejashwi Yadav leads as the preferred Chief Minister with 33% preference. The Election Commission of India has scheduled the two-phase election for November 6 and 11, with vote counting on November 14.

Party-Wise Seat Forecast

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to emerge as the single largest party, bagging 70 to 81 seats, followed by JD(U) with 42 to 48 seats. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is likely to win 5 to 7 seats, while the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) may secure two seats. The Rashtriya Lok Samta Party might manage one or two seats.

Within the Mahagathbandhan, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could win 69 to 78 seats, Congress may get 9 to 17, CPI(ML) could secure 12 to 14, while CPI and CPI(M) are expected to win one or two seats each.

Vote Share and Trends

The NDA's projected vote share stands between 41% and 43%, narrowly ahead of the MGB's 39% to 41%. The Jan Suraaj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, is estimated to attract 6% to 7% of votes, while other regional parties together could claim around 10% to 11%.

Popularity Contest: Who's Bihar's Top Choice?

According to the poll, Tejashwi Yadav leads as the most popular choice for Chief Minister with 33% preference, while Nitish Kumar follows at 29%. Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor each command 10% support, and Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary trails with 9%. About 4% of respondents prefer another BJP face for the top job.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced a two-phase election on November 6 and 11, with vote counting on November 14. The updated electoral roll lists 7.42 crore voters, reduced from 7.89 crore earlier this year after removing about 65 lakh inactive names.

In the 2020 elections, the NDA secured a majority, with the BJP winning 74 seats and JD(U) 43 seats. This year, with the alliance again projecting strong numbers, analysts suggest Nitish Kumar's long-standing political influence remains intact despite visible anti-incumbency.