Bharat Forecast System Launched, Know All About It

The Ministry of Earth Sciences on Monday unveiled the Bharat Forecast System, a cutting-edge numerical global model that boasts a high of 6 km. This innovative forecasting system, which aims to enhance operational forecasts down to the panchayat level, marks a significant advancement in the prediction of extreme rainfall events. Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), this tool has already demonstrated a notable 30% improvement in forecasting extreme rainfall since its experimental use began in 2022. With its ability to provide detailed predictions, the Bharat Forecast System is poised to significantly benefit strategic sectors, including defense, particularly in rescue operations.

The introduction of the Bharat Forecast System comes at a critical time as India grapples with a series of extreme weather events. Just this month, intense dust storms and thunderstorms wreaked havoc across Delhi and the National Capital Region, claiming at least 12 lives due to various causes like house collapses and electrocution. These storms have also disrupted flight operations and caused extensive damage, including waterlogging and power outages, highlighting the urgent need for improved weather forecasting and preparedness for monsoon seasons.

The Bharat Forecast System represents a significant leap forward in weather forecasting technology. Developed indigenously by IITM, an autonomous body under the Earth Sciences Ministry, the system has been operational on an experimental basis since 2022. Its implementation has led to a 30% improvement in the accuracy of extreme rainfall forecasts and a remarkable 64% enhancement in rain predictions within the core monsoon region. Additionally, the system has refined cyclone track and intensity forecasts. One of the key advancements of the Bharat Forecast System is its ability to drastically reduce the time required to run models from 12-13 hours to merely 3-4 hours.

IITM's director, Suryachandra Rao, highlighted the system's enhanced resolution, stating, "The [Bharat Forecast System] resolution is 6km at the tropics and 7-8 km resolution at the poles," emphasizing its precision. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director-general of the India Meteorological Department, further underscored the significance of this development. He pointed out that the Bharat Forecast System is not only a global model of exceptional fineness developed by India but also a crucial tool that can aid strategic sectors in conducting rescue operations more effectively.

India's journey in the realm of numerical weather modeling began in 1994 with the launch of its first numerical model, followed by the introduction of the Climatology and Persistence Model in 1999. Since then, India has been utilizing global models to predict weather patterns. Numerical weather models operate by employing mathematical equations to simulate and forecast weather conditions globally, using weather observations as the basis for simulations.