AAP will get 14 seats says this IB report on Delhi polls

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New Delhi, Jan 27: The Delhi battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Aam Admi Partry may not be a hard fought one after all if one goes by this intelligence bureau report. Two reports by the Intelligence Bureau which has done a comprehensive study of the forthcoming elections suggest that the AAP may not get more than 14 to 16 seats.

The report also goes on to state that many prominent leaders in the AAP may not even retain their seats and this is largely due to the dipping popularity of the party after quitting the government in 49 days.


Downslide for the Aam Aadmi Party:

The IB report points out clearly that the past few months have witnessed a major downslide for the AAP. The biggest factor that will play against the AAP is the quitting of governance in 49 days. Several persons feel that when in governance there are challenges which will come by and quitting is not the solution.

The other factor that is different when compared to 2014 is that the government at the centre has changed. The people of Delhi feel that having the same party in Delhi and also at the Centre would help a great deal. A lot has changed for the AAP after the Lok Sabha elections and the 49 day quitting fiasco, the report further goes on to state. The report also states that there is a negative air regarding the AAP which will cost it badly during the elections.

Kiran Bedi factor:

The report also goes on to state that the Kiran Bedi factor has added a fillip to the BJP's prospects in Delhi. Prior to the announcement of Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate, there was a mixed response among the people about the post of CM.

Many felt that Kejriwal individually would make a better CM. However, with the entry of Kiran Bedi, that equation has changed a great deal. The people of Delhi want to see a different face as the CM and Kiran Bedi brought about that factor, the report also mentions.

The AAP has also been hit badly due to several leaders in the party quitting. Many have come out of the party accusing it of running it like dictators. This has changed the perception among the Delhi voters a great deal. This is another factor that has hurt the AAP badly in the run up to the Delhi elections.

Expert's take:

According to leading psephologist, Dr Sandeep Shastri, the attitude of the AAP in quitting the government in 49 days had it effects in the recent Lok Sabha elections. There is a realization among the leaders of the party, but I doubt that changes anything for them.

They appear to be clearly on the backfoot and the issue of the premature resignation is going against them more than any other factor.

It appears to be an election which will be won by the BJP comfortably. The other factor that one would get to see in the Delhi elections is the Congress being wiped out and the AAP aiming to take over that vote bank, Dr Shastri also points out.

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