A divided AIADMK is of no use to the BJP

TTV Dinakaran on Thursday accused Edappadi Palanisamy of misgovernance

The AIADMK continues to be a divided house with three factions. While the Edappadi Palanisamy and the O Panneerselvam factions are doing everything they can to please the BJP, the AIADMK is of little use to the BJP unless it unites to become the formidable force that it once was.

Amid speculations of AIADMK joining the NDA, one question remained pertinent, Whose AIADMK? For the BJP, a divided AIADMK only spells trouble. For a state that has opposed ideologies of the BJP for decades, Tamil Nadu is proving to be a challenge to make inroads in. While the situation is ideal for a new political entity to make waves in Tamil Nadu, the same is unlikely to materialise for the BJP without an ally, an ally who has a strong foothold.

What the BJP is looking for

With 135 MLAs and 50 MPs, AIADMK is a huge strength for the BJP at the state as well as the national level. Considering that both, the Edappadi Palanisamy faction and Panneerselvam faction are cosying up to it, the BJP doesn't have to go out of the way to make them partners. While a united AIADMK is a huge strength, the current AIADMK with 26 MLAs supporting Dinakaran, 97 MLAs supporting Edappadi Palanisamy and 11 MLAs supporting Panneerselvam, is more trouble than help.

Governance in Tamil Nadu has become an uncertain ship wading through troubled waters. With MLAs supporting TTV Dinakaran, Palanisamy no longer has the comfortable 122 MLAs' support he enjoyed during the vote of confidence. Panneerselvam is way too long off from managing a majority. The DMK is attempting to exploit the situation and force another vote of confidence, in the hope that Palanisamy will lose. Snap polls are expected in Tamil Nadu if the split AIADMK refuse to unite.

WIth such uncertainty, the BJP has nothing to gain from a split AIADMK that is already earning the wrath of the public over administrative ineffectiveness. The primary charge of the opposition is Tamil Nadu government becoming subservient to the BJP, a claim that will be proven right if the BJP partners either faction of the split AIADMK. In fact, staying away from an alliance with a split party but managing the 'crisis' in Tamil Nadu is more in BJP's advantage.

If there are no snap polls, elections in Tamil Nadu are four years away. Enough time for the BJP to gain some ground before becoming too dependent on the AIADMK. With Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan's guest appearances on the political issues in Tamil Nadu, the BJP seems to be in no hurry to rush into an alliance. Wait and watch is the party's stance for now but much is expected to change in August when Dinakaran is expected to return to take charge as the party's deputy general secretary.

Talks of merger make a comeback only to fizzle out

Without being made the party General Secretary and getting an assurance of becoming the Chief Minister, Panneerselvam won't agree to a merger. Camp insiders believe that agreeing to hold merger talks dented Panneerselvam's image among the people. With his late night rebellion at Jayalalithaa Samadhi, Panneerselvam had managed to win the hearts of the people by opposing Sasikala, who had become a villain in the public eye following Jayalalithaa's death. Things changed after he agreed to hold merger talks.

He decided to call off talks unhappy over Sasikala continuing to call shots and fearing further public wrath. Now, months after the Panneerselvam camp dissolved the team they had formed to hold talks of merger, the Edappadi Palanisamy team expressed hopes of rekindling talks.

The speculations of talks rekindling were wiped out immediately by the Panneerselvam camp. Now all eyes are on Dinakaran's return as party deputy chief.

In the AIADMK, the BJP sees added strength in the Rajya Sabha but at the state level, unless the party becomes a unified entity, the BJP sees no real potential for a strong ally.

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