2023 To Write 2024 Script

Politics is chemistry, and not mathematics. Hence, a scenario is unlikely where all the opposition parties reach a perfect understanding on the names of candidates, election issues and have complete coordination in campaigning.

As we ring out 2022 on an uncertain note, the nine state elections - stretching from Telangana to Tripura - will dominate the political scenario in 2023. It will be a dress rehearsal for the next Lok Sabha elections slated for May 2024. There's little doubt that results of 2023 Assembly polls will shape the debate and narrative for 2024.

Throughout next year, BJP, Congress, AAP and regional parties will be in an election mode. We have a busy election calendar next year. Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland will go to polls in February-March, Karnataka in May and Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana in November-December.

For obvious reasons, all opposition parties are striving hard to dislodge BJP from the prime position it has come to occupy in the country's political milieu since 2014. The disparate anti-BJP groups are no doubt one in their desire to decimate Modi, but for want of a positive agenda, there's nothing to glue them as a cohesive team. While fighting against BJP, they are also elbowing and undermining each other. Their fight isn't to replace BJP at the centre, but for the second slot.

Can the opposition parties coalesce around a common programme and build a working electoral alliance to take on BJP in 2024? Looks doubtful. Congress, out of all the opposition parties, has still the largest vote share of about 20 percent. But it suffers from some inherent flaws - which makes its revival difficult. It has no ideological framework to motivate its cadres. Over decades, the party has reduced itself to a mere electoral machine, surviving on outdated clichés of Cold War vintage, sans any missionary spirit, ideological clarity and organisational cohesion.

To differentiate itself from the BJP, the party leadership, bereft of ideological moorings, borrows heavily from outdated Marxist lexicon. Unfortunately for it, Communism is a failed ideology, rejected the world over, and has no takers whatsoever among the young aspirational Indians. On top of all this, the party is heavily dependent on the dynasty for leadership - an anachronism in a modern egalitarian democratic world. Rahul Gandhi terming Veer Savarkar a British agent and calling tribals as 'asli malik' (the real owners) of the country and by implication defining rest of Indians as some sort of usurpers, during his 'Bharat Jodo Yatra', are examples of poor ideological mimicry. It's bad politics, wrong history and reeks of Communist toxicity.

To add to Congress woes, AAP and Trinamool Congress (TMC) have been fast gnawing into its support base. TMC too is ambitious and would like to use the next year to extend its political presence outside West Bengal. Tripura and Meghalaya are on Mamata Banerjee's radar. AAP has emphatically decimated Congress in Punjab and registered its presence in Goa and Gujarat. Much to Congress chagrin, AAP has made no bones about its national ambitions. The party surely is a serious player in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

However, AAP underperformed expectations in Delhi and Gujarat; and was a non-starter in Himachal. AAP has no ideological baggage - which is its strength, and weakness as well. In other words, it has no conviction whatsoever. This ideological vacuum, no doubt gives flexibility to the party and allows it to tailor its stand on various issues, depending on the exigencies of a given situation.

While in Delhi its former AAP councillor Tahir Hussain's has been charged with leading violent Muslim mobs during 2020 Delhi riots, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal came out with a suggestion to have Ganesh-Lakshmi images on currency notes on the eve of Gujarat elections, obviously to curry favour with Hindu minded Gujarat electorate. After elections, however, none has heard Arvind Kejriwal repeating this demand- underlining his casual approach on ideological matters.

AAP's opportunistic streak has its limitations. Running with hare and hunting with hounds, doesn't always work. AAP failed to make a dent in the Hindu base of BJP in Gujarat, and was rejected by the Muslim voters as well. Its opportunistic nationalism could also make coalition building with other anti-BJP parties difficult.

Almost all non-BJP parties are competing for 'secular' votes. Lalu's RJD, Nitish's JDU, Stalin's DMK, Jagan's YSR Congress or KCR's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (TRS) practice a brand of 'secularism', an euphemism for pandering to Islamic and Christian fundamentalism - and wouldn't accept any dilution in their 'secular' credentials.

Most of the regional parties caricature family owned firms - with dynasties calling the shots. The regional satraps are ruthless in squashing dissent, brazenly pander to communal interests and shamelessly practice crony capitalism. None of them can claim to be providing a clean, honest, corruption free administration, or democratic governance in their own state.

The BJP has maintained its electoral dominance, winning five of the seven State elections including Uttar Pradesh in 2022. The loss in Himachal Pradesh was notional. The difference in percentage of votes polled by winner and loser was less than one percent.

The biggest asset of BJP is the image of the Prime Minister, at home and abroad. He is a matchless crowd puller, an engaging orator, a master communicator, and a mass leader, with a spotless record spanning decades of public life. Modi's personal popularity far exceeds that of his party. With a 77 per cent net approval rating, according to Morning Consult's Global Leader tracker, Modi is easily far ahead of his political rivals.

After recording resounding victories in Gujarat, UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur in 2022, the workaholic BJP leadership is not going to rest. None of the top shots - Narendra Modi, Amit Shah or Jagat Prakash Nadda - are going for a New Year break like Rahul Gandhi. They would be busy giving shape to their war plans for the nine states that will go to polls next year, and account for 116 Lok Sabha Seats. Many of the states had voted differently in the previous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In 2018, the BJP lost in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, but vanquished the Congress in Lok Sabha elections a year later.

In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Congress is riven by factionalism and infighting. BJP too is in difficulties in Karnataka and needs to put its house in order. However, in Telangana, the BJP is aggressive and may succeed in dislodging the TRS.

What are the prospects of a strong, united Opposition? Very dim indeed. There's nothing else to bind them together, except virulent hate for Modi. The eight-year Modi regime would be long remembered for demonetisation, war against corruption, reaching succour to crores of needy citizens without leakage through a multitude of welfare schemes, a successful fight against Covid, effective efforts for restoration of normalcy in Jammu & Kashmir, construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya, renovation of Kashi Vishwanath, massive strides in infrastructure development, and above all, elevating India's stature in the global arena.

Can any opposition party dare say it would reverse any of these moves if voted to power? Barring demonetisation, opposition parties wouldn't even initiate a discussion on any of these subjects, for they know it would only recoil on them. What if all the parties decide to form a united front?

In an unlikely scenario where all the opposition parties reach a perfect understanding on the names of candidates, election issues and have complete coordination in campaigning, will all the anti-BJP votes aggregate against the ruling party? Unfortunately, for the Opposition, the answer is: No. Politics is chemistry, and not mathematics. The answer to 'two plus two' is unpredictable in politics - it need not always be four. The final answer can range between zero and 22 or even 222.

Narendra Modi in Indian public life is like a catalytic agent in a chemical reaction - his mere presence in an election campaign is enough to upset all caste-regional calculations. Let's wait what 2023 has in store for us, for it would leave its lingering shadow on the following year, 2024.

(Mr. Balbir Punj is a Former Member of Parliament and a Columnist. He can be reached at: [email protected])

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.