What Went Wrong For BRS In Telangana Polls? The Findings Of Lokniti-CSDS Survey Is Here

Despite the towering image of BRS supremo and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, along with the party's extensive grassroots network and welfare programmes, the party failed to emerge victorious in the recently-held assembly polls.

The ruling party had heavily banked on the welfare schemes, but the schemes failed to reach the people, The Hindu reported citing a Lokniti-CSDS survey. It further claims that the Aasara Pension Scheme had the greatest reach among the schemes, while the Housing Scheme had the least.

There appears to be a clear link between not benefiting from the schemes and a higher vote percentage for the Congress party.

The KCR government implemented initiatives and programmes for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). However, a significant majority of SC (82 per cent) and OBC (83 per cent) voters did not reap the benefits of these schemes. This voting pattern indicated a distinct preference for the Congress, particularly among OBC voters, as 43 per cent of those who did not benefit from the schemes voted for the Congress.

In contrast, the state witnessed a lower penetration rate of the schemes introduced by the BJP-led Central government. On average, three out of five voters did not receive advantages from these central initiatives, leading to a lack of motivation to vote for the BJP among those who did not benefit.

Consequently, almost 40 per cent of voters who did not experience advantages from the schemes of the Central government opted for the Congress over alternative parties.

The analysis indicates that the schemes introduced by the BRS had a restricted impact in Telangana, even after a decade of governance, thereby impeding the party's prospects of securing a third term. The results imply that voters tend to base their choices on whether they benefit from such schemes, and in the absence of such benefits, they are inclined to support a party other than the incumbent.

The survey credits the Congress' voter reach model and campaign strategists for its success in the polls. Information from the Lokniti-CSDS survey indicates parity between the Congress (52 per cent) and the BRS (52 per cent) in virtual voter outreach programs through phone calls and recorded voice messages. The BJP closely followed at 44 per cent, while the BSP lagged behind at 10 per cent (Table 1). In the outreach program involving physical visits to voters' homes, the Congress (78 per cent) outperformed the BRS (76 per cent), with the BJP trailing at 63 per cent.